Cotton Price Analysis In 2011

Last year

The US Department of agriculture's latest weekly export report shows that the current net sales of cotton in the United States are negative again for a period of more than ten weeks, and the default amount is higher than the new contract volume.

Meanwhile, due to the expected decline in domestic market consumption, India announced an increase of 170 thousand tons of cotton export quotas, cotton supply is abundant, domestic cotton imports have declined for 3 consecutive months, and demand has become the biggest cotton price.

As cotton prices gradually decline, and in the early stage

Spinning enterprises or facing industrial restructuring

At the beginning of 2011, textile enterprises generally had high inventory of raw materials. The sales situation of cotton yarn was not smooth, and the price of raw materials continued to decline.

After the textile industry is faced with the adjustment of industrial structure and some small and medium-sized enterprises withdraw from the market, the large and medium-sized textile enterprises will further expand.

Domestic regulatory policies gradually ease

With the price of Cotton falling sharply, the regulation and control policy has eased up to nearly 19800 yuan / ton.

Cotton prices will be more guided by the market, 19800 yuan / ton storage price or psychological price of the market. Whether the cotton price can maintain the "2" prefix era remains to be seen.

Cotton or touches the bottom in the fourth quarter.

At present, the Zheng cotton 1201 contract maintains 21000-22000 interval oscillation, the difference is bigger, the position increases obviously.

The pressure above the gap is obvious, due to the close of the purchase and storage price, fierce competition.

In the short term, we should focus on intraday operation, not overnight, but we can wait for the short selling opportunity later.

The whole industry chain of cotton began in April, although the price was reduced, the effect was still not optimistic.

In the process of falling cotton prices, textile enterprises will not receive enough goods to enter the field.

And the export situation of textiles is not optimistic. It is expected that cotton prices will remain weak in the three quarter.

The new cotton will be listed in 9-11 months, and the cotton harvest information will be gradually digested. If the late weather conditions change significantly, it will effectively support cotton prices.

Meanwhile, at the end of the year, textile orders will generally increase in the peak season of cotton consumption, which will form a certain support for cotton prices.

At the same time, domestic regulatory policies have slowed down, and the probability of cotton prices hitting the bottom in the fourth quarter is greater.

In the later stage, we still need to pay attention to factors such as macroeconomic regulation and control policy, price of substitute products, whether there are variables in the later stage of production and whether the consumption demand can be effectively improved.