The Big Two Raised The Wholesale Price Of Diesel By More Than 100 Yuan.

With the change of crude oil rate in three places, the domestic gasoline and diesel industry was cut down in early September. Price Expectations have been lost. According to the September 13th report of the oil products market monitoring agency, in the first week of September, the wholesale price of PetroChina (9.77,0.04,0.41%) and Sinopec diesel increased by an average of 100 yuan ~150 yuan / ton.

Driven by the rise in crude oil and the expected rebound in diesel demand in September, some traders began to replenish their products. In this regard, analysts believe that although there is speculation and excessive replenishment demand in the diesel market, it happens again. Diesel shortage It's unlikely.

Diesel wholesale price per ton Gain Over 100 yuan

According to the latest monitoring of Zhuo Chuang, the price of gasoline and diesel in China increased in different periods during the first week of September, with the increase of diesel oil at an average rate of 100 yuan ~150 yuan / ton.

Li Qian, an analyst at the agency, believes that 8 and September are the two main refinery maintenance peaks of PetroChina and Sinopec. Since September, tight diesel resources and the weakening of oil price expectations by the NDRC are among the reasons for the slight rise in gasoline and diesel prices.

Recently, international oil prices showed a trend of continuous volatility, making the proportion of high price in the 22 day mobile average price of three crude oil increased, and the change rate of crude oil in three places continued to rise. As of September 12th, the change rate of three has risen to -1.66%.

Hu Huichun, an information analyst at Zhuo Chuang, predicts that if the recent international oil price stays high, the change rate of the three places will probably become positive in the middle of 9. Even if the recent international oil prices continue to decline and fall (within 5 US dollars / barrel), the change rate of three will not be able to fall to -4% this month. Therefore, it is difficult to turn the window down, and the reduction of domestic gasoline and diesel prices in September is expected to fail.

International crude oil recovery, domestic oil price Stop falling And show signs of rising. PetroChina economic and Technological Research Institute has analysts said that, due to the low load of domestic refineries for several months, the petrochemical dual male inventory was low, and the market supply allocation in September was not abundant. Some of the main units in North China and East China began to moderate the price increase after entering September, and diesel oil was more obvious.

According to the survey of Xi Wang energy, as of September 8th, the 35 main refinery operating rates continued to drop 0.51 percentage points from two weeks ago to 79.66%, which is still the lowest level this year, down 8.3 percentage points from the highest level in late May this year.

Since June, the enthusiasm of domestic refineries has not been high enough. In addition, centralized maintenance and frequent accidents are still decreasing. As of the end of July, the oil product storage ring ratio fell 5.47%. Of which, gasoline fell by 5%, and diesel oil fell by 5.4%.

Hu Huichun said that this month, the petrochemical dual male diesel fuel allocation plan has been greatly reduced, and even some parts of the diesel industry has highlighted tensions. The willingness to push up the price rises under the rise of crude oil. Most of the domestic main diesel wholesale price has risen to the wholesale price limit, but there is still a distance from the retail price limit.

Speculative demand or outbreak of diesel oil

"Most traders have no hope for the recent price adjustment. The market is more puzzled after the price adjustment is lost, but some traders are starting to replenish the goods. Analysts at PetroChina economic and Technological Research Institute said that in the short term, the price adjustment was hopeless, and the domestic market mentality was no longer on the watch. Traders operated normally. There was no speculative buying at present, but the normal seasonal demand recovery could also drive diesel fundamentals to become stronger.

Han Jingyuan, a market analyst at Treasure Island, said: "after the Mid Autumn Festival, the overall bullish mentality is still continuing. The demand for diesel terminal will gradually increase in the late stage, and the National Day holiday is approaching, so the replenishment enthusiasm is hard to dissipate."

"Similar to the same period last year, recent signs of a sudden rise in international oil prices show that the sudden outbreak of speculative demand may repeat itself." Han Jingyuan believes that during the peak season of diesel demand in September, diesel supply gap in some areas is not surprising.

Due to the reduction of import duty on imported diesel and the rebound of the two refineries' operating rate by the end of September, it is unlikely that the diesel oil shortage will happen again. The domestic gasoline supply and demand side is expected to fluctuate not too great, the market atmosphere or the impact of rising diesel prices have been boosted.