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In November, The New Foreign Exchange Position Was Still At A High Level &Nbsp; &Nbsp; The Trend Of Hot Money Inflow Did Not Change.

2010/12/18 8:59:00 52

In November New Foreign Exchange Funds Were Imported.

The latest data from the central bank show that

New foreign exchange in November

For the 319 billion 600 million yuan, it was significantly lower than the high level of 530 billion 100 million yuan last month, which is also slightly lower than the market's previous expectations.

However, compared with historical data, the foreign exchange account of about 300000000000 yuan is still in a high position, reflecting the near future.

Massive inflow of foreign capital

The trend is still continuing.

According to customs data, the trade surplus and foreign direct investment (FDI) in November were 22 billion 900 million US dollars and 9 billion 704 million US dollars respectively.

In the foreign exchange account, the two parts were eliminated, and the inexplicable capital inflow was about 100 billion yuan, which highlights the recent surge in "hot money".

At present, the signs of "hot money" flowing into emerging markets are obvious.

Liu Mingkang, chairman of the China Banking Regulatory Commission, also said yesterday that the emerging market countries may face unprecedented pressure of "hot money" inflow. If inappropriate measures or measures are not effective, they will have a greater negative impact on their own economy.

In the next stage, with the aggravation of global liquidity surplus, international capital arbitrage will be more frequent, which will further increase the volatility of domestic commodity and asset prices and increase the difficulty of macroeconomic regulation and control.

For the prevention and control of "hot money", central bank governor Zhou Xiaochuan explained "pool theory" a few days ago. The typical "pool" refers to foreign exchange reserves, some of which are used to get hot money in, and then carry out a 100% hedge, so that it will not have a negative impact on the national economy in total volume.

However, the increase in foreign exchange due to the recovery of "hot money" is bound to bring too much liquidity to the market.

According to industry sources, the contribution rate of foreign exchange to M2 has reached 30% this year.

Data show that as of the end of 11, M2 balance of 71 trillion and 30 billion yuan, an increase of 19.5% over the same period, an increase of 0.2 percentage points higher than last month.

In this regard, the central bank has begun to take decisive action.

Since November, the central bank has raised the deposit reserve rate for three consecutive times, and has postponed the maturity date of some banks' differential reserve ratio.

Next year's monetary policy has been set to "steady". The central economic work conference also called for "good liquidity gate" next year.