China Cotton: High Cotton Prices Will Continue Until The First Half Of 2011.

　　 The Cotton Research Institute of China wrote in November 11th on the website of China Cotton Association. supply and demand Fundamentals, global Yield increase Lower than expected, the gap between production and demand and the depreciation of the dollar and other factors. High cotton prices It will last until the first half of 2011, and may stabilize or return to a higher reasonable price after June.

The report pointed out that since the advent of new cotton, farmers' seed cotton prices have surged. From September, it opened up to 7.4-7.6 yuan / kg to 12 yuan / kg. In early November, the purchase price of grade 2-3 seed cotton rose to 13.2 yuan per kilogram in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River, and the cost of lint rose to 29886-29546 yuan / ton, creating a new high price.

In October, the price of farmers was 10.33 yuan / kg, up 71% over the same period last year, rising 16.5% over the same period. In September, farmers were priced at 8.87 yuan / kg, up 54.8% over the same period last year.

According to the report analysis, from the price and cost of grain and cotton, the price of cotton farmers is about 15000 yuan / ton, and the price of seed cotton is 7.6 yuan / kg, which should be a reasonable price.

According to the report, the global cotton planting area will increase in 2011 under the high price pull, but the new year's production will also be affected by the weather, which will add more uncertainty to the future cotton market. If the cotton price is "hard landing", it will weigh down or even eliminate a number of textile enterprises. The soft landing of cotton prices requires adequate supply of resources and suitable monetary policy environment.

According to the China Cotton Association, in the long run, the government should promote the production of key links, strive to achieve 8 million tons of capacity and increase the supply capacity, and at the same time introduce a minimum purchase price to improve the country's policy control capability.

The China Cotton Association also suggested that the government should improve the emergency control capability of the market to absorb and put into operation. From the historical experience, the government's reserves and delivery capacity can not be less than 3 million tons, otherwise the control effect is limited. In addition, it can also accelerate the development of "order agriculture" and large-scale contracted cultivation, so as to effectively enhance the enterprise's digestion and price increase and its ability to cope with risks.