In September, New Loans Or More Than 500 Billion &Nbsp; Far Beyond The Rhythm Of Credit.

According to sources, in September, four major state-owned banks, namely, industry, agriculture, China and construction.

In August, the four largest banks added RMB loans to 218 billion 800 million yuan, all new RMB loans increased by 545 billion 200 million yuan, and the four major banks accounted for about 40%. If the proportion was August, all new loans in September will exceed 500 billion yuan.

Earlier, Goldman Sachs expects to offer RMB loans at least 550 billion yuan in September.

New RMB loans will exceed 500 billion

According to the August economic data, according to the data of August, the newly increased RMB loans accounted for 40% of the total amount of new RMB loans.

If this ratio is used as a reference, the total amount of new people's loans in September will exceed 500 billion yuan.

However, due to the inaccuracy of the current data, it is not until the central bank reports accurate data that it can be calculated.

Goldman Sachs Gao Hua's research report predicts that the RMB loans issued in September amounted to 550 billion yuan ~6000 billion yuan, an increase of 18.5% over the same period last year.

Basically the same as 18.6% in August.

The monthly growth rate is about 12.4%, down from 27.6% in August.

Goldman Sachs pointed out that the money supply and loan data in September were more uncertain than usual.

Because commercial banks issued a lot of loans in September, and then pressed the regulatory pressure on loan days at the end of the month, the number of loans was reduced.

But the reduction in loans may not be enough to limit the size of the three quarter loan to the government's original target.

Owing to the government's annual credit target of 7 trillion and 500 billion yuan, the four quarter was launched at the pace of 30%, 30%, 20% and 20%. According to the loan data of 7 and August, the amount of loans implied in September was only 422 billion yuan.

This means that the monetary policy of the three quarter has obviously relaxed, thus promoting the rebound of the real economy.

Goldman Sachs believes that the monetary authorities will be flexible in dealing with the target of 7 trillion and 500 billion yuan in the rest of the year. If credit growth is maintained at a rate of about 500 billion yuan per month, economic growth will continue to rebound, while inflation will remain relatively low.

At the same time, Goldman Sachs expects China's M2 growth in September to be 19.2%, which is basically flat at 19.1% in August.

The monthly growth rate is expected to fall to 18.6% from 31.3% in August.

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Central bank data show that in 1~8 months, China's financial institutions had invested RMB 5 trillion and 700 billion yuan in loans, accounting for 7 trillion and 500 billion yuan of 3/4 of the Chinese government's credit target this year.

If RMB loans increased by 500 billion yuan in September, it added 6 trillion and 200 billion yuan in the first 9 months and completed 83% of the annual credit target.

The total amount of the remaining 3 months is 1 trillion and 300 billion yuan, with a monthly average of 433 billion 300 million yuan.

The pace of growth in total credit volume exceeded regulatory expectations.

Central bank has always stressed that this year we should guide the moderate growth of the total amount of money and credit, and strive to achieve relatively balanced credit capital.

According to the traditional rhythm of "3, 3, 2, 2" of the whole season and the arrangement of 4:4:2 in each quarter, the new loan in September should be controlled at around 280 billion yuan.

But the market is expected to increase lending by about 500 billion yuan in September, which is far beyond the scale and pace of credit administration.

Analysts pointed out that in recent two months, the economic growth rate was higher than expected. The monetary authorities' concerns about inflation and the pressure to control inflation are increasing. It is not ruled out that the CPI growth will reach a new high in September.

To control inflation, the central bank must tighten the credit gates.