Economic Operation Tends To Be Stable, And Price Pressure Still Needs Attention.

Experts said that considering these indicators, the current Economics In the steady operation situation, we should pay close attention to asset price issues, do well in inflation expectations management, and take further measures to effectively guide consumption.

The central bank released the 19 national survey of bankers, entrepreneurs and urban savers in the three quarter. Macro economy The heat index dropped slightly, and the entrepreneur confidence index remained basically stable. The bankers' confidence index increased significantly over the previous quarter, hitting a new high since the two quarter of 2006. Experts have warned that in view of these indicators, the current economic situation is still in steady operation. We should pay close attention to asset price issues, manage inflation expectations well, and take further measures to effectively guide consumption.

"Wind vane" confirms that the economic development is in good shape.

Analysts from Huaan securities told reporters that the survey showed that Entrepreneur The confidence index remained high and stable, and the business operation was in good condition. The business climate index climbed to 70.3% in 6 consecutive quarters. It was close to the high historical value of 2008 and the stable market demand of the enterprises. The willingness to invest steadily and steadily increased.

He further indicated that although bankers expected the macroeconomic warming to fall somewhat in the next quarter, the demand index of fixed asset investment and operating loan demand fell from the previous quarter and the trend of product sales price index rising for the 5 consecutive quarter.

The survey showed that in the three quarter, the fixed assets investment, equipment investment and civil construction investment index increased respectively. "From the situation that the demand index of fixed assets investment and operating revolving loan increased, compared with the previous quarter, the capital is still in the field of production orderly."

In this survey, there are still some "bright spots". For example, along with the improvement of enterprise's production and operation, the employment situation has also been improved. It is reflected that in the three quarter survey, urban residents' income, employment feeling and expectation index have improved. At the same time, the banking boom index is at a relatively high level in recent years. Bankers are expected to have a good and stable operation in the next quarter. In addition, the demand index for personal consumption loans has increased slightly.

In the survey, bankers' feelings and concerns about monetary policy were noticeable. In the three quarter, the bankers' Monetary Policy Perception Index (the proportion of bankers who chose "moderate" monetary policy) was 69.4%, a 11.5 percentage point increase over the previous quarter. Zheng Chaoyu, a professor at the school of economics at Renmin University of China, said: "bankers feel that this may be related to the continuity and stability of the central bank's monetary policy this year. Overall, the situation of internal and external economic development has been complicated this year. Under such circumstances, the major countries in the world have basically maintained a relatively loose monetary condition. For the next quarter, 63.9% bankers expect to maintain the status quo, up 12.4 percentage points from the previous quarter. "This means that the market has objective needs and certain expectations for maintaining continuity and stability in monetary policy." Zheng Chaoyu said.

Inflation expectations do not reduce price pressures need attention

The survey shows that urban residents' satisfaction with prices in the three quarter has increased slightly, and the price expectation index has dropped slightly after the elimination of seasonal factors. Although it fell by 0.6 percentage points over the previous quarter, 58.3% of the residents thought the price was "high and unacceptable". At the same time, it is predicted that the proportion of residents will increase in the next quarter, and the price expectation index will continue to rise in the future.

Recently, CPI has been rising for 3% months in the past two months due to seasonal factors and rising food prices. But overall, the average price increase is still within a moderate range. There is no overall price rise due to imbalance between supply and demand. It is expected that prices should be maintained at a reasonable level in the future. Experts point out that residents' perception of high prices may be directly related to the recent "high level of asset prices". In fact, the survey also confirms this judgement. For the current housing price level, 72.2% of the residents in the quarter thought it was too high to accept, although it was slightly down 0.3 percentage points from the previous quarter, it was still 7 percentage points higher than that of the same period last year.

And for the future housing prices, 36.6% of the residents in the quarter had a rising expectation, a 7.2 percentage point increase over the previous quarter. However, although housing prices are expected to rise, there is no significant increase in the willingness of urban residents to buy houses.

Analysts from ICBC believe that this year, after the promulgation of the "ten countries" of real estate, the relevant departments actively study and implement relevant policies of the central government, and strive to keep the housing prices at a reasonable level while promoting the healthy development of the real estate industry. However, Beijing, Shanghai and other cities are affected by many factors, such as rigid demand for housing, limited land resources, and the advancement of urbanization. In the short term, prices have not dropped significantly. This is an important reason why residents generally remain too high and unacceptable to the price. However, with the continuous introduction of the policies of the central and local governments to maintain the healthy and sustainable development of the real estate market, residents generally have expectations for the "housing price rising trend is expected to be eased".

Consumption continues to constrictive investment is another highlight

The survey also showed that residents' willingness to save and consume declined slightly, and their willingness to invest continued to rise. In the three quarter, the consumption intention of urban residents continued to decline in the two quarter, while the trend of "more investment" increased by 2.5 percentage points over the previous quarter.

During the interview, Huang Xiangbin, chief strategist of XinDa securities, said: "at present, China has gradually entered the development stage of GDP3000 to US $5000 per capita, and this stage is marked by the upgrading of consumption. With the improvement of life and the increase of income, residents' consumption will also rise. But at present, this trend of consumer tightening does not seem to embody this rule, which is related to the continuous improvement of China's economy and the fact that residents find more opportunities to share the fruits of economic development and gain investment income, resulting in some consumption being squeezed and diverted for investment, reflecting a continuous upward trend in investment willingness.

Insiders say that residents are in the process of expecting high prices in the future. Conventional savings At the same time, it is more inclined to invest funds in anti inflation assets such as buying real estate, gold and stocks. In the next stage, we should take measures to manage inflation expectations, and further expand consumption on this basis, and strive to realize the transformation of China's economic growth mode. In the current quarter, residents' better expectations of future income and employment will help further increase consumption in the future.