Market Dynamics: Zhengzhou Cotton Futures Prices Fell. Recently, Cotton Prices Fluctuated At The Bottom

The price of Zhengzhou cotton futures fell on Thursday. The closing price of Zheng cotton's May contract was 13685 yuan/ton, down 85 yuan/ton, or 0.62%, from the previous trading day. In terms of spot goods, China's cotton price index (CCIndex) 3128B Xinjiang machinery picking price was 14370 yuan/ton, 20 yuan/ton higher than the previous trading day, and the basis difference between 3128B Xinjiang machinery picking price and Zheng Mian's main contract (CF2505) was 685 yuan/ton.

On Wednesday, USDA released the monthly supply and demand report for February. In this report, the US output and export estimates for 2024/25 were not adjusted, and the ending inventory was slightly increased by 20000 tons to 1.07 million tons; China's output increased by 220000 tons to 6.75 million tons; The global output increased by 220000 tons to 26.23 million tons, and the ending inventory increased slightly by 110000 tons to 17.07 million tons.

The weekly export sales report of the US Department of Agriculture on Thursday showed that the net export sales of upland cotton in 2024/25 increased by 244700 bales, 30% higher than the previous week, and 14% lower than the average level of the previous four weeks. The export shipment of upland cotton was 260900 bales, an increase of 18% over the previous week and 27% over the average of the previous four weeks, including 17700 bales exported to China.

The negative effects of domestic production increase and the imposition of tariffs by the United States have been digested in the short term. With the recent commodity strength, cotton prices fluctuate at the bottom, and there is a possibility of breakthrough from the bottom up.

The USDA report in February was slightly negative, within the expected range, and did not affect cotton prices. In the near future, we need to pay attention to the supply variables of the new year, focusing on the planting area forecast report for the next year at the end of February.

If there are variables in the supply of the next year, such as the expected production reduction in the new year, the cotton price may rebound.