Residents' Consumption Stopped Falling And Stabilized, And The Recovery Of The National Economy Continued To Consolidate

In the first quarter of 2024, in the face of the complex and severe international environment and the difficult challenges in the process of domestic economic recovery, all regions and departments adhere to the principle of seeking progress while maintaining stability, promoting stability through progress, building up first and breaking down later, implement macro policies ahead of time, consolidate the capital and strengthen the endogenous momentum, highlight the work of stabilizing the forecast period, stabilizing growth, stabilizing employment, and transform the mode, adjust the structure, improve quality China's national economy is characterized by rapid growth, better structure, and better quality and efficiency. The recovery trend is constantly consolidated and strengthened, laying a good foundation for completing the main goals and tasks of economic and social development throughout the year. 　　

1、 From the perspective of macro indicators, the economy started steadily and started well 　　

Stability is the overall situation and foundation. For an economy as large as ours, it is vital to keep the economy running smoothly. To observe the stability of the economy, we usually look at the four macro indicators, namely, economic growth, employment, prices and the balance of payments. Since this year, with the continuous release of the effects of macro portfolio policies, economic growth has been steadily rising, employment prices have been generally stable, the balance of payments has been basically balanced, and the foundation for "stability" has continued to be consolidated. Against the backdrop of rising external instability and uncertainty, and insufficient momentum for world economic recovery, it is commendable that China's macroeconomic market remains stable. 　　

Economic growth has increased steadily, and production demand indicators have increased rapidly. In the first quarter, the GDP reached 29.6 trillion yuan, an increase of 5.3% year-on-year at constant prices, 0.1 percentage points faster than that in the fourth quarter of last year; After adjusting for seasonal factors, it grew 1.6% month on month, maintaining positive growth for seven consecutive quarters. From the perspective of production, the recovery of internal and external demand has led to the acceleration of industrial production, and the growth of the service industry is good. The total contribution rate of the two to economic growth is 93.1%. Among them, the industrial added value increased by 6.0% year on year, 0.8 percentage points faster than the fourth quarter of last year; The contribution rate to economic growth was 37.3%, up 7.3 percentage points. From the perspective of demand, consumption potential continued to release, investment and export growth picked up, and the "troika" drive was more coordinated. In the first quarter, the total retail sales of consumer goods and services increased by 4.7% and 10.0% respectively year on year; Fixed asset investment (excluding farmers) increased by 4.5%, 1.5 percentage points faster than the previous year; Net exports of goods and services played a stronger role in driving growth, with their contribution rate rising to 14.5%. Some physical indicators that can directly reflect the economic operation have maintained rapid growth. In the first quarter, the power generation of industries above designated size increased by 6.7% year on year, the power consumption of the whole society increased by 9.8%, the freight volume increased by 5.0%, the passenger traffic volume for business increased by 20.5%, and the port cargo throughput increased by 6.1%. This objectively reflects the trend of economic recovery, indicating that the economic growth of 5.3% is supported. Looking at the world, China's economic growth is expected to continue to lead among major economies and remain an important engine of world economic growth. 　　

The employment situation has generally improved, and the unemployment rate in urban areas has declined. Employment is the foundation of people's livelihood and stability, and employment stability is an important manifestation of economic stability. The economic operation has picked up and improved. Especially since March, enterprises have accelerated the resumption of work and production, increased the activity of the labor market, and increased employment in the service industry, providing strong support for the improvement of the employment situation. In the first quarter, the average unemployment rate of the national urban survey was 5.2%, down 0.3 percentage points year on year; In March, it was 5.2%, down 0.1 percentage points year on year and month on month. It is preliminarily estimated that the average number of employees in the service industry in the first quarter increased by more than 10 million on a year-on-year basis, including more employees in accommodation, catering, transportation, information transmission and other industries. The economic vitality of big cities is relatively strong. The urban survey unemployment rate has been lower than the overall national level since December last year, which has played a positive role in improving the national labor market.

Consumer prices stopped falling and stabilized, and core CPI kept rising moderately. In the first quarter, the consumer price index (CPI) was flat year on year, down 0.3% in the fourth quarter of last year; The core CPI excluding food and energy prices rose 0.7%, 0.1 percentage points higher than the fourth quarter of last year, basically in line with the trend of economic recovery. From a monthly perspective, CPI in January fell 0.8% year on year; It rose 0.7% in February, ending the trend of year-on-year decline for four consecutive months; In March, the increase was 0.1%, and the increase was slightly reduced, mainly due to the seasonal decline of food, tourism services and other prices after the Spring Festival holiday. On the whole, the structural and phased characteristics of CPI changes are relatively obvious. In March, among the eight categories of consumer prices, the prices of food, tobacco, alcohol, transportation and communication fell year-on-year, but the prices of clothing, education, culture and entertainment, daily necessities and services were all rising, rising by 1.6%, 1.8% and 1.0% respectively. From the perspective of the trend in the next stage, as the economy rebounds and the implementation of policies such as trade in of old consumer goods is accelerated, the driving effect of festivals and holidays such as the May Day holiday and the Dragon Boat Festival is apparent, the consumer demand of residents is expected to continue to recover, the stability of employment and the increase of income are also conducive to the improvement of consumption capacity and willingness, while the downward effect of the tail lifting in the later period is generally weakened, and these factors are expected to promote the stable operation of prices Moderate recovery. 　　

The balance of international payments was basically balanced, and the quality of trade in goods increased steadily. In the face of many external unstable and uncertain factors, China has strengthened its efforts to consolidate the basic foreign trade and foreign capital market, enhanced the linkage effect of domestic and international markets and two resources, and constantly improved the quality and level of opening up, providing important support for the economic recovery. From the perspective of goods trade, the scale of import and export has reached a new level, and the comprehensive competitive advantage of foreign trade has been consolidated. In the first quarter, the total import and export of goods exceeded 10 trillion yuan for the first time, reaching 10.17 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.0%, and the growth rate hit a new high in six quarters. The export of key commodities enjoyed a good momentum, the import of bulk commodities and consumer goods for people's livelihood steadily expanded, and private enterprises continued to play the main role in foreign trade. From the perspective of service trade, cross-border travel continued to recover, productive service trade increased steadily, and the structure of service trade tended to be optimized. From January to February, the total import and export volume of services increased by 22.8% year on year, of which the export volume and import volume increased by 17.9% and 26.5% respectively. In terms of trade in goods and services, according to the data of the Administration of Foreign Exchange, the surplus in the first quarter exceeded 60 billion US dollars, which was at a high level in the same period of history. From the perspective of foreign exchange reserves, cross-border capital flows are generally balanced, and foreign exchange reserves remain stable. At the end of March, the balance of foreign exchange reserves was 3245.7 billion US dollars, an increase of 7.7 billion US dollars over the end of the previous year; The central parity rate of RMB against the US dollar was 7.0950 yuan/US dollar, which remained basically stable. 　　

2、 From the perspective of development quality, the "gold content" of economic development is constantly improving 　　

Progress is direction and power. Only "strong strength" can lead to "high height", and only "advanced quality" can lead to "stable growth". In the first quarter, while the scale of China's economic aggregate steadily expanded, China continued to promote the structural optimization, quality and efficiency improvement, and made new progress in innovative, coordinated, green, open, and shared development. Transformation and upgrading have been well accumulated, and the momentum of "progress" has become increasingly obvious. High quality development has been steadily promoted, and the momentum is getting better. 　　

Cultivate and grow new quality productivity. Scientific and technological innovation is the core element of developing new quality productivity. Since the beginning of the year, China's scientific and technological achievements have continued to emerge, major countries' heavy equipment has been "updated" frequently, the first "ground space station" in China has passed the acceptance, the first prototype of a 300 megawatt class F-class heavy gas turbine has been put on the line, the self-developed AG60E electric aircraft has successfully made its first flight, and the first 400G all-optical inter provincial backbone network of "Eastern Digital Western Computing" has been officially put into commercial use, It has injected new momentum into accelerating the development of new quality productivity. At the same time, more scientific and technological achievements are going out of the laboratory, into the production line, into the lives of the people, to achieve the effective transformation of samples, products, and commodities, new industries, new formats, and new infrastructure are booming, and new quality productivity is more tangible. In the first quarter, the added value of high-technology manufacturing above designated size increased by 7.5% year on year, 2.6 percentage points faster than that in the fourth quarter of last year, including double-digit growth in semiconductor device manufacturing, integrated circuit manufacturing, and intelligent vehicle equipment manufacturing industries. New technologies such as big data and the Internet of Things help upgrade the development of the whole process of commodity production, circulation and sales, promote new models and new formats such as live delivery, instant retail, and intelligent logistics, and drive the growth of online retail sales of physical goods by 11.6%, accounting for 23.3% of the total retail sales of consumer goods. The construction of new infrastructure such as 5G base stations and computing power networks has been accelerated. By the end of March, 3.647 million 5G base stations had been built nationwide, and the penetration rate of 5G users exceeded 60%. 　　

The economic structure was continuously optimized. As the foundation of the development of the real economy, the high-quality development trend of the manufacturing industry has been further consolidated, the proportion of the manufacturing industry has steadily increased, and the trend of high-end, intelligent and green development is more obvious. In the first quarter, the added value of all manufacturing industries increased by 6.4% year on year, accounting for 27.0% of GDP, 0.8 percentage points higher than that of the previous year; The added value of equipment manufacturing industry above designated size and high-tech manufacturing industry accounted for 31.8% and 15.2% of industries above designated size respectively. The role of domestic demand as the driving force is prominent, and consumption is the "ballast" for the stable operation of the economy. In the first quarter, the contribution rate of domestic demand to economic growth was 85.5%, of which the contribution rate of final consumption expenditure was 73.7%. The consumption structure of residents has changed from commodity consumption to both commodity and service consumption. The per capita service consumption expenditure of residents has increased to 43.3% of the per capita consumption expenditure. The consumption of tourism, entertainment and leisure services has not decreased. Digital consumption, health consumption and green consumption are increasingly favored by consumers. The manufacturing industry continued to strengthen the chain. Investment in high-tech industries and manufacturing technology transformation increased by 11.4% and 8.2% respectively, significantly faster than the total investment. The income of rural residents grew faster than that of urban residents, and the relative income gap between urban and rural residents narrowed. The ratio of per capita disposable income of urban and rural residents in the first quarter was 2.30, a year-on-year decrease of 0.05. 　　

The green and low-carbon transformation has been steadily promoted. The energy system has been transformed into a clean, low-carbon, safe and efficient one, and the proportion of renewable energy production and consumption has steadily increased. In the first quarter, industrial wind power generation and solar power generation above designated size increased by 11.0% and 17.5% year on year respectively; According to preliminary accounting, the proportion of non fossil energy consumption in total energy consumption increased by 0.8 percentage points year-on-year. The green production and life style is deeply rooted in the hearts of the people, and new green and low-carbon growth points are accelerating to emerge. In the first quarter, the output of new energy vehicles, solar cells, monocrystalline silicon and other products increased by 29.2%, 20.1% and 58.2% year on year respectively. The effect of pollution prevention and control continued to appear, and the quality of the ecological environment was generally improved. In the first quarter, the proportion of days with good air quality in cities at prefecture level and above rose 3.5 percentage points year on year; Among the national surface water assessment sections, the proportion of sections with good water quality (Class I-III) increased by 0.8 percentage points year on year. 　　

High level opening up has been deepened. Against the background of complex and volatile external environment, China has unswervingly promoted high-level opening up, actively guided the majority of foreign trade entities to explore the international market, and China has closer economic and trade ties with the world. The number of "certified operators" (AEO) mutual recognition agreements signed and the number of countries and regions recognized each other have maintained the "double first" in the world, and the market layout has diversified and advanced simultaneously. In the first quarter, China's import and export volume to countries jointly building the "Belt and Road" and other BRICS countries increased by 5.5% and 11.3% year on year respectively; The import and export volume to the five Latin American and Central Asian countries achieved double-digit growth. The rapid development of cross-border e-commerce and other new forms of foreign trade not only helps our products reach the world, but also becomes an important channel for overseas consumer goods to enter the Chinese market. In the first quarter, the import and export volume of China's cross-border e-commerce increased by 9.6% year on year, of which the export volume of overseas warehouses increased by 11.8%. The quality of investment attraction has steadily improved. The number of newly established foreign-funded enterprises in China has increased by 20.7% year on year, and the proportion of high-tech manufacturing industry to attract foreign investment has increased by 2.2 percentage points year on year, which shows that the Chinese market is still attractive to foreign investment.

The basic livelihood guarantee is strong and effective. The recovery of the economy and the stable employment situation led to the recovery of residents' income growth. In the first quarter, the per capita disposable income of the national residents increased by 6.2% year-on-year in real terms. The rapid growth of wage income and net operating income is the main factor supporting the growth of residents' income. The industrial service industry developed well, the number of employees and working hours in related industries increased, driving the per capita wage income of residents to increase by 6.8% in nominal year-on-year terms; Driven by the Spring Festival holiday and the rise of cultural tourism, the family business situation in accommodation, catering, wholesale and retail and other industries has improved, driving the per capita net operating income of residents to increase by 6.8%, of which the per capita net operating income of the tertiary industry increased by 10.8%. Social insurance coverage has been further improved. By the end of March, the number of people covered by basic old-age insurance, unemployment insurance and work-related injury insurance had reached 1.067 billion, 242 million and 295 million respectively, up from a year earlier. We will increase employment assistance for migrant workers and other key groups, deepen labor cooperation, and encourage the combination of going out for employment, nearby employment, and returning home to start businesses. The employment of migrant workers is generally stable. In the first quarter, the average urban survey unemployment rate of migrant agricultural registered labor (mainly migrant workers) was 4.7%, down 0.9 percentage points year on year; At the end of the quarter, the number of migrant rural labor reached 185.88 million, up 2.2% year on year. 　　

3、 From the perspective of development prospects, the economy has the foundation and conditions to develop well and steadily 　　

To scientifically study and judge the economic trend of the next stage, we should adhere to the "two points theory", seeing both difficulties and challenges, as well as advantages and opportunities; At the same time, we should adhere to the "focus theory", be good at grasping the general trend and recognizing the mainstream. At present, the global high inflation, high interest rates and high debt spillover continue to affect, trade protectionism intensifies, the vulnerability of the international financial system increases, geopolitical conflicts are more variable, and the complexity, severity and uncertainty of the external environment increase. China's economy is still in the critical period of recovery, development, transformation and upgrading, effective demand is still insufficient, enterprises still have difficulties in production and operation, risks in some areas need to be resolved, and the foundation for improvement still needs to be strengthened. In response to these difficulties and challenges, the Central Economic Work Conference has carried out forward-looking analysis and systematic deployment. All regions and departments are working harder to solve these problems. Some problems have been alleviated, and some problems have changed. At the same time, it should be noted that China's development has a solid foundation, many advantages and huge potential. The internal motivation for supporting sustainable economic development has not changed, and many aspects are still strengthening. The basic trend of economic recovery and long-term improvement has not changed. There are foundations and conditions for sustainable economic development.

First, the market vitality has gradually increased. Enterprise benefits and expectations improved, and consumer confidence rebounded, creating favorable conditions for economic development. In March, the purchasing managers' index of the manufacturing industry was 50.8%, returning to the expansion range. 15 of the 21 industries surveyed were in the expansion range, 10 more than the previous month; The business activity index of the service industry was 52.4%, rising for three consecutive months; Consumer confidence index rebounded for four consecutive months. These indicators reflect that the market boom is expanding and the activity is improving, which will help drive the expansion of production and operation in the next stage and smooth economic cycle. 　　

Second, we accelerated the shaping of new driving forces and new advantages. Despite profound and complex changes in the domestic and international situation, China still has many new opportunities and favorable conditions for development. For example, China has accelerated the construction of a modern industrial system, rapidly improved its innovation capability, and rapidly formed and developed new driving forces; Promote the green transformation of the development mode, green and low-carbon industries are in the ascendant, forming many new economic growth points; Deepen and deepen reform in an all-round way, accelerate the construction of a market-oriented, legal, and international business environment, and constantly stimulate the vitality of endogenous power. All these have enhanced the resilience and resilience of the economy, and further consolidated the foundation for consolidating the economic recovery trend and promoting long-term development. 　　

Third, the effectiveness of the policy is expected to continue to release. Policies need a process from implementation to effectiveness. The Central Economic Work Conference and the National Two Sessions have made comprehensive arrangements for this year's policy orientation and key tasks, clearly proposed to strengthen counter cyclical and cross cyclical adjustment of macro policies, strengthen innovation and coordination of policy tools, and relevant parties are stepping up implementation. The recent introduction of the action plan for large-scale equipment renewal and consumer goods trade in will provide strong policy support for the stable operation of the economy, together with the continued effectiveness of the early implementation of policies such as issuing more government bonds, reducing interest rates and reserve requirements, and reducing taxes and fees. 　　

We should grasp the important time window of the second quarter, pay close attention to the detailed implementation of policies, accelerate the transformation of the decisions and arrangements of the Party Central Committee and the State Council into new achievements in promoting high-quality development, continue to consolidate and enhance the momentum of economic recovery, and promote the quality and effective improvement of the economy and reasonable growth in quantity.