Interpretation Of Seven Key Issues Of State Power And Production Restriction

Since the beginning of this month, the national policy of limiting production and power has been implemented in all provinces of the country. Facing the current grim situation of dual control of domestic energy consumption, provinces named by the national development and Reform Commission, such as Guangdong, Zhejiang, Jiangsu, etc., have introduced power restriction measures.

Up to now, the "electricity restriction tide" has been extended to 20 provinces and cities in China, and the three northeast provinces have even begun to restrict civil power.

Many places in Northeast China issued power rationing notices, saying that if the power shortage is not eased, the power rationing work may continue.

In view of the current power supply situation, the State Grid Corporation of China (SGCC) recently announced that it will take comprehensive measures and multiple measures to ensure the basic people's electricity demand and to avoid the situation of power cut-off and power restriction to the greatest extent.

Why is there a power shortage in the near future? Why can't power failure be notified in advance? Can heating be guaranteed this winter under coal shortage? This time, we focused on seven major issues on the event of power cut-off and power restriction.

1. Is this round of power supply shortage related to "dual control" of energy consumption?

In 2015, the Fifth Plenary Session of the 18th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China proposed "dual control" of energy consumption, that is, to control the intensity of energy consumption (also known as unit GDP energy consumption, the utilization efficiency of energy in creating economic output value) and the total energy consumption.

In this way, energy-saving indicators are included in the performance evaluation index system of ecological civilization and green development, which forces the transformation of development concept.

Recently, some provinces have experienced power rationing by switching off, and the assessment pressure under the "dual control of energy consumption" is considered to be the reason behind the power supply shortage.

Han Xue, a researcher at the Institute of resources and environmental policy of the development research center of the State Council, said that the pressure of "double control" on energy consumption was there. At the end of last year, some places also had the situation of controlling the total amount of energy consumption by limiting electricity.

Liu Wensheng, deputy director of Guangdong Provincial Energy Bureau, recently responded that the current round of off peak power consumption is mainly caused by factors such as high temperature "increase" of electricity load and limited generating capacity of units in the province, and it is not due to dual control of energy consumption.

Guangdong Province avoided the "one size fits all" approach to dual control of energy consumption, and took measures such as stopping work and stopping production for rectification of "two high" projects without approval; In case of power shortage, priority should be given to the protection of power consumption for residents' living and service industries, and the power consumption of "two high" enterprises should be restricted.

2. Why is power shortage in the near future?

Thermal power is the main power supply throughout the year, accounting for more than 70% of the total power generation in China. Jilin Province official news said, "the recent coal shortage, power shortage."

According to the report on coal economic operation in the first half of 2021 issued by the China Coal Industry Association, China's coal consumption in the first half of this year was about 2.1 billion tons, an increase of 10.7% year-on-year.

Over the same period, the output of raw coal from enterprises above Designated Size nationwide reached 1.95 billion tons, only a year-on-year increase of 6.4%. In addition, China's major ports stored 62.98 million tons of coal, a year-on-year decrease of 8.3%.

As the recovery of China's epidemic situation is better than the global average level, China's industrial production demand is strong, and the demand for electricity and coal consumption is strongly expanded. Coal is in short supply, leading to price rise.

From the absolute price of coal, the current coal price in China has been at a high level since 2008. Last week, the purchase price of power coal has reached 1086 yuan / ton (calorific value is 5500 kcal), nearly doubled year-on-year, up 56.26% compared with the beginning of the year.

In addition, hydropower is the second largest power supply source besides thermal power. The lack of positive hydropower generation this year is also an important reason for the shortage of power supply.

3. Why is it possible to limit the power supply to residents?

According to the National Bureau of statistics, in 2020, domestic residents' electricity consumption will account for 14.6% of the total electricity consumption of the whole society.

Residential power consumption is very high in the priority sequence of China's power security. Limiting residential power consumption is also to prevent the occurrence of power gap, which will lead to grid damage and affect the power consumption in a larger range. This situation will only be considered when the industrial and commercial power restriction can not make up for the power shortage.

How much power supply gap does northeast China face? The Beijing News said that Liaoning and Heilongjiang provinces have been suffering from power shortage since September 10, and have started several rounds of orderly power utilization measures of level III (load gap of 5% - 10%) and level IV (load gap of 5% and below).

Since September 23, the situation of power shortage has intensified, and the two provinces have respectively launched level II (load gap 10% - 20%) orderly power utilization measures.

4. Will power grid equipment be damaged if the gate is not opened?

Liaoning Province held a power security work meeting pointed out that since July, due to the sharp decline in power generation capacity, Liaoning Province is short of electricity. A few days ago, the power supply gap was further increased to a serious level, "the Northeast power grid dispatching department directly issued instructions to implement the" grid emergency power cut-off and power limitation "according to the relevant plans.

At present, there is no form of large capacity and long-term energy storage with higher maturity and lower cost in the world, Han said. Therefore, if there is a large gap in the power supply, in order to prevent the spread of electricity and power generation in a wider range, power rationing is the last resort.

It also indicates that if the power is not limited, the equipment in the network will be damaged, and the power grid may be broken down if the power is not limited.

In this regard, the State Grid Corporation of China (SGCC) said that it would spare no effort to maintain the order and stability of power supply and consumption, guarantee the basic demand for electricity for people's livelihood, and avoid the situation of power cut-off and power restriction as far as possible.

5. Why can't the power supply company inform in advance and cut off power orderly?

The reply given by the power supply company is that due to the tight supply and demand of power and the emergency situation, it may be impossible to inform the users in advance.

In this regard, Han Xue said that in accordance with relevant laws and industry operating procedures, power rationing in the case of orderly or normalized power supply shortage needs to be notified in advance.

However, if it is impossible to predict in advance or in case of more emergency, it is necessary to cut off the load urgently in order to avoid a larger fault. The more urgent the accident is, the shorter the window period for notification will be.

In addition, power rationing usually occurs during peak hours, such as 10 a.m. or 7-9 p.m.

The power supply work meeting held in Liaoning Province requires that the grid company should extend the forecast time of orderly power consumption load gap and the release time of early warning level, and expand the scope of notification, so as to facilitate the user to arrange the power consumption plan in advance.

The State Grid will strictly implement the demand response and orderly power utilization plan formulated by the government, timely carry out communication and coordination work, and spare no effort to maintain the order and stability of power supply and consumption.

6. Why can't wind power and natural gas fail to catch up?

According to the official explanation in Heilongjiang Province, in September, with the continuous development of the economy, the demand for electricity has reached new highs. In addition, due to the influence of equipment maintenance before the heating period, the power generation capacity of thermal power units is limited, and the reduction of new energy power generation, the power supply is in short supply.

Moreover, the rising trend of natural gas price and coal price in the international market is similar, which leads to the tension of global natural gas supply and demand. About half of China's natural gas demand needs to be imported. In the case of soaring prices and tight supply and demand, the supply of natural gas will be as tight as coal.

As mentioned above, hydropower, as the second largest source of power supply other than thermal power, is not active this year. In the first five months of this year, hydropower only accounted for 11.6% of the total power supply in China.

"Similar to hydropower, the instantaneous power generation of wind power depends on the current wind speed, and the proportion of wind power generation in the whole country and Northeast China is very low. In 2020, the proportion of wind power generation in the power consumption of the three eastern provinces is less than 11%, which has little impact on the overall power supply and demand."

7. Coal is in short supply, can heating be guaranteed this winter?

Peng Peng, Secretary General of the China new energy power investment and financing alliance, said that in view of the current situation, the price of coal may be difficult to fall quickly, and the tense situation should continue.

In this regard, the relevant enterprises in Northeast China have collectively signed medium and long-term coal contracts in Beijing, involving major coal production enterprises, guaranteed supply coal mines and key power generation and heating enterprises in Northeast China.

After the signing of the contract, the coal used for power generation and heating in Northeast China has been fully covered by medium and long-term contracts, which means that a medium and long-term contract is used to "guarantee" the coal for people's livelihood in the heating season in Northeast China.

In fact, the national development and Reform Commission has also carried out relevant work to speed up the release of coal production capacity, including organizing the nuclear increase of coal production capacity, supporting the continuous use of open-pit coal mines, and signing medium and long-term coal contracts, so as to ensure the safe and stable supply of coal in the heating season this winter and spring.