In The Era Of Overcapacity, All Routines Are Out Of Order. Polyester Price Has Failed, And The Textile Market Has Been In A Dilemma.

Holiday + release price = production and sales boom, but this time "failure"!

Before the holiday, the polyester filament factory was bleeding again. Some leading factories directly reduced the quoted price by 500 yuan, nearly 10 percent off. Compared with the current cash flow, it should be sold at a loss. It is such a big promotional effort that has not been exchanged for sustained production and marketing. Once the market has been on the market, the market returns to calm again.

In the first trading day after the festival, the turnover of polyester was also light. Some POY production and sales were 20%, 30% and 45%; some FDY production and sales were 30%, 20% and 50%; some DTY production and sales were 80%, 30%, 50%, in short: poor!

29, polyester filament sales promotion continued, mainstream manufacturers quoted price of 100-200 yuan / ton decline.

　　 From the price table of nearly 10 days, the raw material of textile is "floating green" this week across the Dragon Boat Festival holiday.

　　 For polyester factories, it is a recognized mode of operation in the industry that all kinds of holidays are allowed before holidays. Many weaving factories choose to fill more or less goods at this node, but the Dragon Boat Festival holiday appears to be "calm".

Why do we feel this way? Because I dare not! Borrow a textile boss's words: often have no wet shoes at HeBian Railway Station, this year basically need to run across the river!

Looking back before the new year's Eve last year, many textile owners denounced "huge sums of money" for storing up a lot of raw materials to prepare for production in the next year. However, an epidemic situation made the original "should have a good start" in February. Yellow polyester fell in March, polyester fell in April, and polyester rose and fell in May. As soon as we get in and out, the textile owners who originally thought about making money have lost a lot.

A raw material salesman said, "now customers are rather numb with raw materials. Before a new year's Eve, a customer used to eat 1000 tons of raw materials at a very low price that he could not imagine, and thought that the price could rise later in the year, so that the price now fell below his low price at that time, and no one dared to risk it." This mindset has continued to this day.

Of course, in the first 2 months, crude oil prices gradually increased from the bottom 10 US dollars / barrel to 40 US dollars / barrel. The polyester filament also released a clear bottom signal, triggering the desire of downstream textile manufacturers to purchase, and their raw materials inventories also entered the new high this year, nearly 1 months or so, but they were restricted by funds. In June, the strategy of raw material purchasing of textile enterprises was more prudent. Stock is the main.

According to the survey, most of the raw materials of the weaving factories are generally stored for half a month or so, and the manufacturers that store more goods in the last wave of the market have been feeding the raw materials of the factory to the end of July or even the end of July. In other words, the raw materials of the habitual stockpiling manufacturers are already abundant, and those manufacturers who originally purchased on demand and bought some points also came out of the overall situation. Considering that funds will not be invested in raw materials.

　　 "Expensive" flour and "cheap" bread, the market is in a dilemma.

In the face of polyester filament manufacturers ignoring the downstream market, with the crude oil from time to time to pull up, is the market really warming up? Xiaobian thinks, of course not!

People in the industry say that the polyester filament manufacturer is just bluffing, and the latter is still a matter of probability.

For example, at present, many polyester filament manufacturers once again entered the tired inventory stage. In addition to the production and sale of more than 100 products on the 23 day, polyester filament manufacturers had not had the volume market for most of the month, and most of the average production and sales were below 5 and below.

For example, at present, the polyester plant still maintains a high load operation. Recently, a set of 250 thousand tons of polymerization spinning filament device for producing POY has been reheated during the Dragon Boat Festival, and the polyester start up from 90.9% to 91.3%.

For example, the price of early silk goes up, but the price of grey cloth is difficult to rise.

For example, although there are signs of a rebound in foreign trade, the contradiction between supply and demand has not diminished. More and more weaving owners have begun to consider the second round of production and holiday reduction.

So the biggest challenge this year for raw materials and weaving factories is how to reclaim demand. Throughout the June, many textile personages said that orders were mediocre. Although local trade and foreign trade were showing signs of warmer growth, hot products were missing. After all, when the terminal demand has not yet fully recovered, consumers can only consume rationally, and clothing is originally a non essential rigid demand. People will only consider clothes after filling their stomachs. This also makes it difficult to drive demand recovery unless there is a larger discount sale activity downstream.

So for the middle part of polyester and fabrics in an awkward situation, on the one hand, raw material prices forced them to rise; on the other hand, the lower price of the price forced them to rise. The whole environment continues to release the signal of off-season, the contradiction between supply and demand continues to escalate, and the pressure of capital will also enlarge, so the ratio of raw materials used for purchasing will also shrink.

In addition, the current global epidemic has already broken through 10 million cases, which has had a bad impact on the whole economy. Now it seems that the epidemic situation is difficult to avoid. Wang, a foreign trade order, said: "this year, we can only keep workers. It has been half a year since the beginning of the year, and has not received a decent order. It is a small order of tens of thousands of meters, which is very laborious. If the raw material goes up again, then we will have to drink the west wind!"

The contradiction between "expensive" flour and "cheap" bread seems to be difficult to neutralize in the short term. However, this year's liquidity is relatively ample. If the cost side is rising sharply, it will probably stimulate the downstream to take in the goods again, ending the deadlock of flour in advance, but how the reality depends on the terminal demand (domestic and international epidemic changes) and upstream (crude oil). The test of price trend!