A Shares Have Opened Up Shanghai Hong Kong Tong And Shenzhen Hong Kong Through "Closed Door".

At two o'clock in Beijing, the Fed announced that it raised the target rate of the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to 1%-1.25%, which officially launched the second increase in interest rates during the year. From the perspective of the US economy, the US interest rate increase is actually a matter of time. As long as the trend of the US economic development does not change significantly, the rate hike will continue.

Even if there are some disadvantaged data in the near future, the pace of raising interest rates will not stop. Therefore, the outside world should not pay too much attention to the interest rate increase. Instead, we should pay attention to how much the Fed will eventually raise the federal funds rate.

Anyway, the reason for the fed to raise interest rates or cut interest rates is very simple. It is far less complicated than most people imagine. The purpose is to reduce or accelerate the development of the US economy.

Taking into account the specificity of the US dollar, the Fed's interest rate increase will have some impact on the world economy, but over analyzing the Fed's interest rate raising motives and even summarizing "conspiracy theory" or "threat China theory", just like the "strange fish" in Zhejiang's college entrance examination language reading, the author does not know what the standard answer is.

Based on economic theory, it is undeniable that the Fed's interest rate increase will have a negative impact on the world economy.

The currencies of most countries in the world are still linked to the US dollar. Therefore, changes in the US dollar will naturally lead to changes in other countries' economies. The Fed's rate hike will reduce the total amount of US dollars that can be circulated in the world, and then there will be an appreciation of the US dollar and an increase in US bond demand.

Conspiracy theory will argue that in other extreme cases, the currencies of other countries will depreciate substantially against the US dollar, and then inflation and capital flight will occur in other countries, and even the US assets will be cheaply to acquire overseas assets and expand the hegemony of the US.

If the Fed raises interest rates to a significant blow to the world economy, then the Fed's previous series of interest rate cuts did not allow the world economy to recover effectively. Of course, we attributed this problem to other factors.

People often use static economic theory to analyze, which is just like the fact that fans often help the national people to calculate the line integral and do not take into account the dynamic factors. It is precisely because the dynamic factors are too many and can be called mass. Therefore, the internal events of any country will affect the global economy as if they are micro particle motion, so it is difficult to measure accurately.

According to the practice of the Federal Reserve, 25 basis points are raised.

The impact is also uncertain.

This kind of uncertainty is less likely to cause too much and long-term impact, resulting in limited profits. The biggest impact may be investor confidence. In the era of developed media, many public opinion exaggerated the harm of the Fed's interest rate hike to China.

From the current situation in China, on the one hand, the economy is running well, all the data show a warming trend; on the other hand, the RMB has been showing a strong attitude recently, and the exchange rate has appreciated to a new high in recent years, coupled with the easing of capital liquidity, the Fed's interest rate increase has limited impact on China's economy.

Especially considering that China's capital market is not fully open, the Fed's interest rate hike may not be as big as China's imagination.

Take March 2017 as an example.

After the announcement of the increase in interest rates, the Chinese economy has not been seriously affected. If there is any analysis that the recent decline of house prices in the second tier cities and the loss of US dollar assets, which is related to the Fed's interest rate increase, it is rather a low volume of pactions caused by the "five limits" of local governments.

If the Fed raises interest rates to drag down China's economy, then drag down other related economies and disappoint their hopes, then it will drag down US exports, and the factories that the United States will distribute around the world will also be dragged down.

We should know that the impact of the Fed's interest rate increase is worldwide. Besides China, the impact of other countries and economies is also uncertain. This uncertainty will lead to other countries' influence. Moreover, countries will have corresponding policies to hedge the impact of the United States' interest rate increase.

Similarly, the Fed's rate hike will not have a substantial impact on A shares, though

The Shanghai and Hong Kong links and Shenzhen Hong Kong links have already been opened up, and they have already achieved the first step of internationalization on the surface. But from the overall situation, they are still in a state of "closed door".

In the early global market is basically in the upward trend, many overseas market index hit a few years of new high or even a record high situation, A shares still maintained a common trend of not following.

But in the case of public opinion propaganda on this issue, it will still cause many funds to panic, and do not exclude the situation of escaping or outward appearance in the short term. But with the new public opinion coming, it will quickly forget the bad turn and turn to the expectation of MSCI.

Overall, the impact on the current A share is not expected.

The Fed's interest rate increase will have an impact on the world economy, but it depends on raising interest rates by 0.25% or raising interest rates by 25%.

Raising interest rates by 25 basis points has little impact on the world economy. Under such circumstances, it is impossible for all US dollars to return to the United States, but for some small and weak economies, it may be a heavy blow. The 2500 basis points for raising interest rates will be a devastating blow to the world economy, and the economies of all countries will therefore grow negatively. In such a depressed environment, the United States will never be strong enough to be independent.

Therefore, this Fed's 25 basis points for raising interest rates, in addition to its benefits, can also speed up the development of countries all over the world to a certain extent.

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