2016, Do Not "Toss" Investment To Identify The Right Direction

Flowers are similar year after year, but different from year to year.

The same is true in the capital market. Every year the fundamentals are almost the same, but every year the market is brand new.

In 2016, the stock market would bid farewell to the bull market, and the tide of bankruptcies would hit fiercely. Real estate faces a historic turning point. Oil will rebound and gold is still bottoming up. The depreciation era of RMB will also be established.

Many people are poor, not because he earns less, but because he spends too much.

The consumption caused by ostentation, face saving and vanity leads to financial deficits and even debts.

If you do not want to be really poor, always stay in the ranks of the poor, you must act immediately, learn to control your desires, save money, refuse to spend your money, and never spend your money tomorrow.

The investment clock, once heated in 2008, will be re discovered in 2016.

People attach importance to it.

The clock in the capital market tells us that we should leave the stock market for some time.

1, the war of bankruptcy.

2016 looks too chaotic for China's capital.

The general observation should be: if we want to be short, we think there are many positive factors.

In fact, the biggest fundamental aspect of 2016 is that the serious excess capacity of traditional production will be faced with liquidation.

But how big is the impact of this fundamental reality? But it is being questioned in the passion of public innovation.

Though the tide of bankruptcy is coming, it is not necessarily the time to grab cheap goods.

When the capacity is out of the management team, it is almost worthless.

The pricing of assets that are on the verge of bankruptcy is also full of game theory.

In the environment of national growth, the bankruptcy tide is a dark battle. How to get profits depends not only on whether you find the cheapest picking opportunity, but also whether you can match the best assets for cheap assets.

For those keen on industrial investment, take the advice: don't easily buy industries that are lower than net assets. This seems to be a worthwhile deal to bring you into an abyss.

2, real estate is really falling.

Predicting house prices is a thankless job. If you say that people are not happy, they will be unhappy if you say they are down.

But the experience of the past five years tells us that some cities have risen, some cities have fallen, and some cities have gone up in some areas, and some areas are not rising.

In fact, housing prices are becoming a tool to divide people's class: in the past three years, housing prices have been rising steadily in the rich areas of the best cities, while the prices of most cities and regions have been on the decline.

Real estate is really falling this time. The overcapacity of China's real estate construction industry has reached an unprecedented danger. I'm afraid that the history of Europe and the United States has not been so thrilling. In 2014, the completion of the national construction industry reached 2 billion 863 million square meters, with an average of more than 2 square meters per capita. The historical equilibrium value of this figure is below 1, and whenever it exceeds 1.5, it will generally fall below 0.5.

If China's construction industry is completed from 2 square meters per person per capita to 0.5 square meters per capita, the housing construction industry's upstream and downstream production capacity will face a significant shrinkage.

In fact, the total housing construction volume in 2014 has exceeded 12 billion 500 million square meters.

This figure slipped below 5 billion.

The start of a new downturn in 2015 is an obvious precursor.

The disaster faced by the construction industry is no less than that of the American society in the 1929.

The advice here is also very clear: sell the investment houses that are not self occupied, or sell them in five years. The houses in the rich areas are indeed falling, but the investment income is no longer tempting.

Since the A shares bottomed out in December 2012, the dream of reform has triggered a super pformation bull market: the gem index has risen 7 times from the bottom to the high point.

Then everything is always broken before it can be established.

If the traditional economy is not disillusioned, the prices of all kinds of social production factors remain high. Only by advocating "public entrepreneurship and innovation" can the government only seduce the ignorant middle class into the battlefield of entrepreneurship.

I believe that the proletariat in the past few years must be a bitterness of tears and return to the proletariat from the high middle class.

For many listed companies, the Internet + pformation over the past few years is not to usher in the harvest period, but to be falsified in the next few years.

The stock market crash at the end of June 2015 and early July was the overdraft of the stock market for too long and overdrawn the success of the pformation in the distant future.

Falling down, waiting for the collapse of the unified industry, waiting for the full collapse of factor prices, only cheap infrastructure can be used for new entrepreneurs to promote a new round of prosperity.

After a two-year unilateral bull market in 2013/2014 and a high bull market in 2015, the stock market needs sufficient time and sufficient adjustment to complete the clearing.

The process is straightforward: after the big bull market, it must be a longer bear market.

4, oil bottom rebound

Oil prices are far below the low level after the financial crisis in early 2009.

We have to admit that people overestimate the irreplaceable nature of oil and overestimate the increasing speed of oil production costs.

Due to the adoption of new energy sources, there are more and more oil alternatives. Due to technological progress, the cost of oil production has not risen over the past 30 years with the decline in oil well taste, and the actual cost is declining.

The current oil price clearly contains too much expectation, especially the expectation that China's construction industry and its upper and lower highs are down.

But expectations seem to have been fully reflected.

And ultimately, the price of oil is still in the European and American economies, and China's share is not listed.

In the wake of the US interest rate hike, the overturned oil price will also rebound.

5, gold bottomed standby

Since 2011, I have kept watching gold and repeatedly pointed out that gold is entering a long bear road.

The reason is that loose expectations for basic currency issuance have reached their peak, and the expected easing has been overwhelming.

The gold price rise based on loose monetary expectations is unlikely to be driven by greater expectations.

Gold prices that are too large will inevitably fall into a long-term downward trend.

When the United States increases interest rates, it means that the expectation of continued easing has been broken, but this is not the starting point for the next start of gold, and to a certain extent, it means that the price of gold will stop.

The change in gold prices is based on expectations. In the past, expectations were based on the circulation of basic currencies, and future expectations would focus on the speed of money circulation.

Over the past 4 years, the decline in the price of gold is due to the adjustment of the expected rate of expansion of the basic currency.

If the economy recovers and the velocity of money moves up in the future, the price of gold will rise.

But this expectation still needs time.

Therefore, the rebound in gold prices will not be as fast as oil.

Over the past more than 10 years, the appreciation of the renminbi has continued to rise because we need Renminbi: buying Chinese goods needs RMB, and buying Chinese houses needs RMB.

In the future, the RMB will enter a longer depreciation era, because people do not need to buy more Chinese goods, and do not need to buy more Chinese houses.

In fact, both the scale of China's manufacturing industry and the scale of China's construction industry are at a turning point: not slowing down, but entering the era of negative growth.

The entry of RMB into the era of depreciation will change the asset allocation of Chinese people: the stock market will bid farewell to the bull market, and the tide of bankruptcy will hit fiercely. Real estate is facing a historic turn.

In large categories of assets, oil may rebound, and high-grade bonds and cash will become an inevitable choice for investors.