Inventory Of China'S Economy Has Seen Four Unprecedented Scenes

China's economy is showing four unprecedented new developments ever seen:

First, China participated in the third industrial revolution in the first time as a country of origin and dominance, namely the Internet economy.

China also began to lead the US in Shenzhen, including high-speed rail, supercomputers and new energy vehicles.

15% of the companies indicated in the prospectus that a technology and product had reached the highest level in the world.

Second, China

It will become the most active in the next 10 years, the largest number of IPO, the fastest development of vc/pe, the private wealth management market and the stock market will advance to two hundred trillion, and the proportion of direct financing and indirect financing will be reversed.

Third, first roads, silk road

The implementation of China's first participation in the reconstruction of the international economic order, especially the Asian investment bank, has been touted by the pformation of China and the changing world.

Fourth, China is presenting an unprecedented new situation for the 1 billion 300 million people to start their business and innovate.

In today's Guoxin Securities strategy and private placement summit held in 2015, Chen Hong Qiao, President of Guoxin Securities, made the above remarks in the keynote speech "welcome to the new era of new wealth and investment banking".

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Xu Xiaonian believes that the new normal includes three aspects:

First, the government is no longer a pillar of GDP's high growth.

Second, under the new normal, the government does not rely on stimulating fiscal and monetary policies to ensure economic growth;

Third, the government will create new dividends through reform.

Why do we propose a new normal at this time? Xu Xiaonian believes that the background is caused by the mismatch between the growth of investment and the growth of GDP over the past thirty years, and the annual growth rate of investment is about 25%. The growth rate of GDP is only 10%.

This is a very obvious overinvestment, which has made fundamental changes in China's economy, that is, the shortage economy under the planned system to the present surplus economy.

Thus, the overcapacity of all walks of life, especially the traditional manufacturing industry, is accompanied by a substantial increase in bank credit accompanied by overcapacity, which has led to a natural decline in investment growth and the decline in investment growth will inevitably bring about a decline in economic growth.

Under the situation of excess capacity, the macroeconomic expansion policy is invalid, and the macroeconomic policy is less and less stimulating to the economy, that is, the diminishing policy effect.

Under the new normal, Xu Xiaonian said that the current decision should be to decide that economic growth is not demand, but supply, which is the new thinking under the new normal.

"The current reform is not to stimulate demand, but to increase the vitality and efficiency of the supply side." the so-called demand side is not enough to cause economic growth to slow down is a wrong way of thinking. "

Xu Xiaonian said that there is no demand, not because consumers do not need, but because there is no spending power, which requires support from residents' household income; on the other hand, the growth of investment needs support from corporate profits.

Xu Xiaonian said that the government can not create effective demand. The government's financial resources also come from the income of residents and enterprises. The government's tax revenue does not change the total social income, and the total effective demand of the society will remain unchanged. Similarly, the government expands the scale of monetary liquidity and dilutes the purchasing power of money, only pferring the purchasing power to the government, and the total social income does not increase.

The Shanghai composite index is close to 4000 points, and the daily turnover has also reached 1 trillion and 400 billion of the volume. Xu Xiaonian said in his speech that when the stock market was unclear, he said, "it is difficult to find profitable investment projects in a surplus economy, so it can not create effective demand."

Xu Xiaonian said that a large amount of capital flows in the capital market, and the real economy is still facing a shortage of funds.