Four Catalysts To Promote "Bull Market"

Before and after the two sessions, the A share market can be described as "spring blossoms".

From the disk, the orderly rotation of the plates replaced the earlier "elephant dance".

Whether it benefited from the decline of international oil prices in the aviation sector and water pport plate, or benefited from the "belt and road" strategy of steel and infrastructure stocks, or along with the upsurge of entrepreneurial innovation, the rise of gene sequencing, domestic software, e-commerce and other areas of stock, there is an increase.

Stock market strength has its underlying reasons, but in the near future

Many factors, such as ample margin, clear government's steady growth attitude, larger macro control space and strong anticipation of deep dividend changes, have become the most direct catalyst for this round of "bull market reform".

The "money making effect" brought by the rising of many stocks has brought more popularity to the market.

According to the statistics of China Securities Depository and Clearing Corporation, the number of new A accounts in Shanghai and Shenzhen two cities has reached 720 thousand and 800 in the past week, much higher than the historical average of 240 thousand households per week.

At the same time, A shares weekly account activity has also reached a new high of nearly 17%.

In addition to the capital market, the recent deployment of Premier Li Keqiang's speech and government work report on economic work has undoubtedly boosted the confidence and expectations of all parties in the market for the sound operation of China's economy.

"If speed slows down employment income and so on, approaching the lower limit of a reasonable interval, we will increase the intensity of directional regulation and control in order to stabilize the market's current confidence while stabilizing policies and stabilizing the market's long-term expectations for China.

In recent years, we have not adopted a short-term strong stimulus policy. We can say that the leeway of using policy is still relatively large, and there are more tools in our toolbox.

Premier Li Keqiang's statement made a real "bottom" to the market.

If steady growth is the "reassurance" of the A share market, then the deepening of reform is the "bull line" of "reforming cattle".

Dhingra, a fund manager, believes that China is adjusting its economic structure and pforming from capital dependence to consumption oriented economic growth mode.

Therefore, he expects the Shanghai Composite Index to exceed 4000 by the end of the year, driven by healthcare, clean energy, Internet and consumer stocks.

Experts pointed out that balancing the relationship between "steady growth" and "structural adjustment" to ensure that the economic operation is in a reasonable interval will win valuable time and space for a series of deep reforms, such as encouraging entrepreneurial innovation, pforming government functions, mixed ownership, interest rate marketization, registration system and so on. This will not only alleviate the worries about the economic downturn, but also enhance the public's expectation of "deep dividends".

"We need to admit that we are still having a hard time in the process of eliminating excess capacity. How to spend this painful period is related to whether the stock market can gain more support from the real economy."

Dong Dengxin, director of the financial and Securities Research Institute of Wuhan University of Science and Technology, thinks.

Under the pressure of economic downward pressure, "

"How far can we go? Most of the market organizations are cautiously optimistic.

Standard Chartered Bank expects investors to increase overall asset allocation in China's stock market through the promotion of capital inflow into the domestic market. The predicted tail risk is disappearing, and China's stock valuation will continue to rise in 2015.

CICC said that the government recently passed the tone of policy easing, and the reforms will continue to deepen in 2015. Therefore, while maintaining more attention throughout the year, it also believes that the market will still need to digest the accumulated gains in the short term.

Haitong Securities Analysis believes that the future

It will become the main battlefield for residents to increase their wealth. The demand for financial assets will continue to expand, and the pattern of stocks and bonds is expected to last for a long time.

Dong Dengxin said that in the current situation, this year's A share market will maintain a wide range of shocks, ups and downs may be larger.

If A shares can stabilize in a suitable range in the future, they will be more conducive to the formation of "long-term bull market" and "healthy bull market".

For this reason, there is reason to have confidence in China's reform and more reason to believe that China's economy will go far ahead under the "dual engine" drive.

Dong Dengxin also reminded us that we must rationally realize that reform is a long-term process, and we should not overdraft and overdraw "deep dividends".

Therefore, for the post market operation, investors should pay attention to prevention and control risks while reasonably grasping relevant opportunities.

At present, the average price earnings ratio of gem is as high as 85 times, and the average price earnings ratio of small and medium board is more than 50 times, and the valuation of listed companies on the main board is still more reasonable.

In the future, investors should pay more attention to the actual situation of listed companies themselves and operate rationally.