The RMB Exchange Rate Has Plummeted Over The Euro?

When the global currency is in turmoil, it is hard for the renminbi to be independent.

This Wednesday, it was close to 2% of the limit line.

On Monday, the yuan continued to fall 0.41% against the US dollar, and the spot exchange rate dropped to 6.2572, reaching a eight month low, down 1.94% from the central parity rate, and approached the 2% upper limit set by the central bank.

Tuesday continued to decline.

Today, the RMB exchange rate has plummeted again, and has approached the limit. At the close, the RMB traded against the US dollar at a spot price of 6.2480, which was 45 basis points lower than the previous day.

Analysts believe that this big drop is quantitative easing in the euro zone, and Greece's anti - tightening ruling party is on the stage.

Quantification of the euro area

In order to make hot money flow into the United States to push up the appreciation of the US dollar, trade and financial markets have been impacted.

As for China, the pressure of outflow of funds has increased, and the pressure of RMB depreciation relative to the US dollar has increased.

Pan Gongsheng, vice president of the central bank, also said that the new QE policy of the European Central Bank and the trend of normalization of the US quantitative easing policy will further push the US dollar exchange rate to strengthen, which may bring downward pressure on the RMB exchange rate.

In recent days, the sharp fluctuations in the renminbi have led some to think of the huge fluctuations in Russia's rouble and euro in the past period. In this case, how far will the RMB devaluation extent be, and will the central bank's monetary policy take measures to see the interpretation of experts?

In recent times, the euro has frequently been "struck".

After the "seven break" of the RMB, it continued downward, and the 26 daily 6.9575 in January once again refreshed its lowest level in 13 years.

At the same time, the influence of Greece off Europe once again pushed the euro to the cusp.

Market participants believe that this year's RMB appreciation in the dollar and other pressures, there will be a certain depreciation, but the scope is limited, will not fall below 6.30.

Zhao Qingming, chief macroeconomic researcher of China Financial Futures Exchange, believes that there will be some significant fluctuations in the renminbi in the near future, but there will not be a significant depreciation. The fluctuation should be around 5% this year, and the depreciation limit will exist at 6.30.

And for

Monetary policy changes, Zhao Qingming believes that the current economic growth rate is down in the economic shift period, from the economic downturn point of view, it is necessary to reduce interest rates and cut interest rates, but from now on, the central bank has passed other innovative ways to release liquidity for the market.

Zhao Qingming said that last year, the central bank innovated some tools to hedge against the decrease in foreign exchange reserves and provided liquidity to these banks. Therefore, if the central bank uses these to release liquidity, the possibility of reducing the accuracy will be small.

Who will be affected by the depreciation of the RMB exchange rate? Let's comb it out.

The first category is investors. From the past data, the RMB exchange rate and A share trend are highly correlated. The devaluation of the RMB often leads to hot money outflow, and A shares may also suffer.

The second category is real estate investors. The reasons are similar to that of the stock market. The depreciation makes RMB assets attractive and the hot money will also withdraw from the real estate market.

The third category is families with children studying abroad. For the students studying in the United States, the depreciation of the renminbi means the same RMB, and the foreign exchange is much less than before.

The fourth category is the Hai Tao nationality. The renminbi depreciates, and many sea races feel "loss" because the prices of some overseas commodities they are buying now have begun to rise.

The fifth category is outbound tourists. The renminbi is not so valuable, and the cost of outbound travel naturally rises.

The sixth category is investors who bet on the appreciation of the renminbi. Obviously, with the fall of the RMB against the US dollar, more and more investors who bet on the appreciation of the renminbi will suffer great losses.