Experts: Stock Market Volatility Is Related To Deposit Size.

The main components of general deposits are three parts: Residents' current savings, residents' regular savings and enterprise deposits. Changes in stock index or stock returns will change the preferences of residents' asset allocation and change the proportion of savings in asset allocation, resulting in the actual savings growth deviating from its original potential growth rate.

Domestic historical experience data also confirm the above judgment: first, the rise of stock index mainly leads to the diversion of residents' time deposits, which has little effect on the diversion of demand deposits; two, the rise of stock index mainly leads to the diversion of savings deposits, which has little effect on the diversion of enterprise deposits, but may increase the deposit of enterprises. In this paper, we mainly analyze the impact of stock index change, that is, the impact of stock asset returns on Residents' deposit assets. Therefore, we do not consider other types of asset return volatility factors for the time being.

Based on the 2416 index of Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index at the end of 10, if the index rises to 3000 points, the stock index will increase by about 600 points (19.47%). During the active period of -2007 stock market in January 2006, the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index rose from 1009 to 3927, or about 2900 points in the year of May. The 600 point increase in stock index corresponds to the stock market volume (monthly) amplification of about 10690 billion yuan (or 9260-12110 billion yuan), where the initial 700 point increase is about 700 billion yuan for the stock market volume (monthly), and the last 800 point increase corresponds to the stock market volume (monthly) amplification of about 13460 billion yuan. Assuming that the increase in stock index and stock market transactions remain unchanged, the market value of the A share market has been expanded to 7 times that of the original market. Therefore, it is estimated that the increase in stock trading volume will be 74800 billion yuan.

It is assumed that the expansion of the stock market volume in early bull market depends not only on the market entry of stock margin, but also on the net inflow of OTC funds through the bank card transfer. According to the data of the first half of 2014, the increment of stock market volume roughly corresponds to the net inflow of 6%-10%'s net transfer, while the increment of 74800 billion yuan volume roughly corresponds to the net inflow of 3890-8480 billion yuan.

The rising stock index promotes the proportion of demand savings and corporate deposits, which means that the diversion of stock market to deposits is mainly reflected in the diversion of regular savings.

It is assumed that under the influence of stock market fluctuations, the potential growth rate of demand savings and time savings deposits is 13%. Based on the savings deposits at the end of 2004, the deviation trend of residents' potential time deposits in the 2006-2008 years is positively correlated with the trend of stock index change (correlation coefficient is 0.84), while the correlation between the trend of residents' potential demand deposits and the trend of stock index change is relatively weak (the correlation coefficient is 0.77).

According to the above relations, the 600 point increase in the 2006-2008 year period corresponds to the diversion of 1800-3960 billion yuan of regular savings, and the diversion of 450-1200 billion yuan in current savings, and the total of two items is about 225 billion yuan -5160 billion yuan. Considering that the market value of the entire A share market and the size of the stock owned by the residents have expanded to 7 times the original value, the current 600 point increase corresponds to the sum of 15470-36120 yuan of savings.

From enterprises Deposit caliber Statistics show that corporate deposits are subject to stock index. Fluctuation effect It may be reflected in two aspects: enterprise capital investment in the stock market leads to a decrease in deposits and the increase in deposits caused by raising funds through the stock market. In addition, considering the long-term dominance of bank credit in domestic social financing, and the key factor affecting the scale of corporate deposits is the derivative effect of corporate loans. The fluctuation of stock index is not the biggest factor affecting the change of the scale of enterprise loans.

Assuming no equity market Under fluctuations, the potential increase in corporate deposits is 29%. Taking the enterprise deposit amount at the end of 2004 as the base, there is a negative correlation between the deviation trend of enterprise deposits and the change trend of stock index in the past 2006-2008 years (the correlation coefficient is -0.50), which indicates that the effect of obtaining deposits by large scale listing funds is greater. According to the above relationship, the 600 point increase of the index in the 2006-2008 years corresponds to the increase of 77 billion yuan (or 250-1300 billion yuan) of enterprise deposits. Considering that the market value of the A share market and the scale of corporate finance have expanded to 7 times that of the original market share, the current increase of 600 points corresponds to the increase of enterprise deposits should be roughly 539 billion yuan (or 1750-9100 billion yuan).

To sum up, when the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 stock index rises 600 points to 3000 points, we can draw the following prediction (without considering other investment channels on the diversion of deposits): first, the size of residents' demand deposits is not sensitive to the fluctuation of stock index, which may result in a reduction of 3150-8400 billion yuan; two, the size of residents' time deposits is very sensitive to the fluctuation of stock index, and the 12600-27720 may be reduced considerably; three is the negative correlation between enterprise deposits and the fluctuation of stock index, and the banking industry may increase by 1750-9100 billion yuan; four, the total amount of deposits of enterprises and residents may be reduced by 13720-27020 billion yuan.