Exchange Rate And Cost Rise Is Still &Nbsp; &Nbsp; Textile Export Recovery Is Difficult.

Be engaged in Textile and garment industry Foreign trade people often exchange information. Since the beginning of this year, the negative voices about the market seem to be more noisy than any other year. Zhang Wei, a merchandiser of a garment enterprise in Shandong, complained: "the long face that faces the boss every day is very bad." On the one hand, some of the old customers in the European market have been closed down, and the orders of the customers who have not failed have been "shrinking"; on the other hand, the factories have been raising prices and extending the delivery period. Now the situation of textile export enterprises can be described by "internal and external troubles".

At present, the trend of export downturn has indeed been extended since the end of last year. China Customs latest statistics show that in January, textiles and clothing exported 21 billion 520 million US dollars, down 0.5%. In terms of enterprises themselves, the idea that order profits should be maintained above 10% has become a luxury. After the Spring Festival in 2012, the spring of textile export enterprises has not yet arrived.

The "1 degree effect" is not a long story.

stay Sales clothing When electrical products and other products, as long as the temperature changes by 1 degrees, the sales volume of goods will change dramatically. This chain reaction caused by the change of temperature is called the "1 degree effect" by the industry. Since February, a strong cold spell in Siberia has swept the Middle East of Europe. The average temperature in Belgium, Ukraine, Russia and other countries is generally low to -20 degrees Celsius. Some garment export enterprises in Jiangsu and Zhejiang provinces have enjoyed the good effect of the "1 degree effect". Orders for down and sweaters from European customers have increased sharply. However, Liu Liansheng, general manager of Beijing Zhuzhou Shengshi group, who has been in the Eastern European market for nearly 20 years, does not seem to be excited by such weather conditions. "There is no sharp increase in our down jacket orders. In fact, most European market orders were signed as early as last December, and customers did not appear in the form of a reminder. Everything was carried out step by step. Liu Liansheng explained to reporters: "after so many years of European business, this freezing cold day is not uncommon. At present, we are more concerned about when the European economy will bottom out, because this is related to the long-term interests of enterprises.

Hu Min, director of the clothing department of the China Textiles Import and Export Chamber of Commerce, said in an interview with reporters that the extreme cold weather in Europe is phased, and that Chinese clothing exports to Europe will not be substantially promoted. "Sudden changes in weather are often encountered by garment enterprises. Short term orders surge will not substantially improve the production and operation of enterprises. Most of the enterprises are more concerned about the economic situation in the European and American markets. Hu Min said.

The European consumer market has not shown signs of vitality until the European debt crisis is dragged down. The euro zone consumer confidence index slipped from -20.4 in December 2011 to -21.2 for the sixth consecutive month in November. Compared with the short business opportunities of weather changes, when the European economy can get out of the haze is a key factor related to the interests of exporters. "Weather variables do not affect the impact of economic turmoil in exporting countries." Liu Liansheng said, from the end of December last year, the company's order situation is not optimistic, the order will not be as good as before. This reporter has learned that in recent days, most textile enterprises who export to European markets are generally not optimistic. The average price has dropped by more than 5% compared with the same period last year, and the number of orders is down by about 3 compared with the same period last year.

The US market carries hope of recovery.

Compared with the European market, the US economy has bottomed out and recovered better. Although the foundation of the US economic recovery is not solid, the road to recovery still faces many problems, such as declining consumer sentiment, high unemployment rate, low real estate market and huge external debt. But in some foreign trade enterprises, the US market will take the lead in bringing hope of recovery. "The current global market, that is, the United States, can still last longer, because the United States can use its own currency to buy things from other countries. But the EU has already had to cut costs and reduce welfare, and its purchasing power is not as good as that of China. "Some American customers told me that this year's US presidential election will bring a turning point for the market, although there is no strong recovery now, but there is hope at last." A Jiangsu textile foreign trade enterprise official said.

It is understood that in order to seize American market In the wake of the revival of opportunities, clothing companies have been considering increasing their efforts to develop the US market, turning from the original OEM form to hiring Americans to set up sales outlets in the US local market and directly sell clothing produced by enterprises. Insiders pointed out that clothing OEM export gross margin is only 5%~10%, set up sales outlets to remove labor and rentals, gross margin can also reach 30%~40%, and the outlook is more optimistic.

Hu Min pointed out that except for external factors this year, the most important internal factors affecting the production and operation of foreign trade enterprises are exchange rate and cost. Back in 2011, the price of textile industry continued to rise, and the increase in labor cost was the most prominent, with a year-on-year increase of more than 15%. While the cost of various production factors continues to rise, the RMB appreciation and other factors superimpose the pressure of rising costs. "From the year 2011, the growth of export volume is mostly driven by price increases. In the case of rising production costs and exchange rates, this price increase is very passive, because profit margins have not risen with the rise in unit prices. Profits still fall in the hands of enterprises, or even less because of reduced orders. And this has continued to the beginning of this year. Hu Min said.

Shanghai New union textiles Shen Quanfang, deputy general manager of import and Export Co., Ltd. has said before that although the external market economy has the most direct impact on orders, the appreciation of the RMB exchange rate, as constantly tightening clockwork, affects the nerves of enterprises all the time. Shen Quanfang believes that the exchange rate issue in 2012 will remain the focus of enterprises' attention. "Nowadays, the profit margins of textile exporting enterprises are generally small, and they can not withstand the rapid rise of exchange rates. We are still concerned about the trend of the RMB exchange rate. If the RMB exchange rate falls by more than 1% this year, then every product can earn a few cents more, and the pressure of our business will be eased. " Shen Quanfang said.

In addition to the issue of RMB exchange rate, foreign trade enterprises are worried about many factors of production cost, such as labor price, production increase and so on. It is understood that the current shortage of workers and workers are still troubled by the cost of the textile industry, coastal workers monthly salary rose to 3000 yuan. Some textile and foreign trade enterprises have transferred their orders from Zhejiang and Zhejiang to Jiangxi's factories, and the cost of purchasing has been reduced by 5%~10%. "In order to stabilize workers, we have to raise salaries and pay. But in the current situation, it is hard for us to afford a raise. And what is the trend of cotton prices this year? If the ups and downs are like last year, the profits of enterprises will be hard to say. In the course of the interview, most enterprises have issued such a call. Faced with the internal and external situation of great hardship, enterprises strive for the support of the government and see the stability of the macro policy while striving for the order.

As Hu Min said, "2012 is bound to be an extraordinary year. For textile exporting enterprises, the stability of domestic policies is the real benefits of gold and silver."