NDRC: 2012, The Total Import And Export Volume Will Not Exceed US $4 Trillion And 320 Billion.

The increase was 14% to 17.5%, further down this year.

National Development and Reform Commission

Pay close attention to foreign trade

According to the NDRC data, China's foreign trade and import volume totaled US $297 billion 950 million in October, an increase of 21.6% over the same period last year.

Of which, exports of US $157 billion 490 million, an increase of 15.9%, and imports of US $140 billion 460 million, an increase of 28.7%.

In the same month, China's foreign trade surplus was US $17 billion 30 million, a decrease of 36.5%.

The NDRC said that it should pay attention to the problem of high opening and low going in the current foreign trade operation, the centralized distribution of trade surplus and the rising import price of bulk commodities.

According to the NDRC data, the year-on-year growth rate of China's imports and exports dropped from 44.1% in January to 21.6% in October. During the same period, the growth rate of exports dropped from 37.6% to 15.9% over the same period, and the growth rate of imports slowed down from 51.6% to 28.7%.

From 1 to October, the prices of main agricultural products and resource products increased by more than 20%, and the price of some products increased by more than 50%.

Optimization of overall import and export pattern

Bi Jiyao, director of the Foreign Economic Research Institute of the NDRC, told the China Securities Journal reporter that the weakening of external demand caused by the global economic slowdown, the increase in domestic production costs and the rapid appreciation of the renminbi are the main reasons for the recent rapid decline in foreign trade growth.

Since September, the import and export volume of China's foreign trade has decreased continuously, indicating that the impact of the European debt crisis is beginning to show.

He remains optimistic about the overall situation of foreign trade.

"Last year, foreign trade achieved a high growth rate in 2009, so this year's year-on-year base is higher.

After deducting the year-on-year factors, this year's growth rate is still good.

He said that the overall pattern of foreign trade was further optimized.

From 1 to September, the general trade import and export grew faster than the previous year, and the growth of import and export of processing trade slowed down obviously. From the export market, the dependence on the United States declined, and the export to ASEAN and other emerging markets increased rapidly. From the import market, the growth rate of imports to the EU and the United States was higher than that of exports.

He expects that the overall pattern of China's foreign trade before and after high and low this year has been determined, and the growth rate of imports and exports in the fourth quarter will be further slowed down. The total annual import and export volume will be 3 trillion and 680 billion US dollars, an increase of 23.8%.

Among them, exports amounted to 1 trillion and 930 billion US dollars, an increase of 22.2%; imports of US $1 trillion and 750 billion, an increase of 25.8%; and the annual surplus of US $176 billion.

Bi Jiyao believes that the world economy will continue to weaken next year, the external demand will further weaken, the growth rate of emerging economies may also decline, the total import and export volume next year will be between 4 trillion and 200 billion and 4 trillion and 320 billion US dollars, an increase of 14% to 17.5%.