Stable Export Of Domestic Sales Will Drop &Nbsp, And China's Textile Industry Will Be Weighed Ahead.

The macro faced by China's textile industry Economics The environment is very complex, with the slowdown of global economic recovery, the tightening monetary policy, the rising cost of production factors and the continued appreciation of the RMB against the US dollar. The overall market is in the haze of the macro environment, and the pressure on the textile industry continues to increase. Although the performance of the "12th Five-Year" performance is good, the overall trend is slowing down.

In the 1~5 months of this year, China's 35 thousand and 400 textile enterprises (above 20 million of the main business income) achieved a total industrial output value of 1 trillion and 990 billion 817 million yuan, an increase of 30.15% over the same period last year. The growth rate of Enterprises above the scale of 1~2, the first quarter and 1~4 months slowed down 1.82 percentage points, 1.47 percentage points and 0.39 percentage points respectively.

According to statistics, the total retail sales of social consumer goods totaled 71268 billion yuan in 1~5 months this year, an increase of 16.6% over the same period last year, and the growth rate continued to accelerate by 0.1 percentage points over 1~4 months. Among them, clothing The above retail sales of shoes and hat textiles were 315 billion 200 million yuan, an increase of 23.5% over the same period, and the growth rate was basically the same as that of 1~4 months. The above data show that our domestic demand market has maintained steady growth since the beginning of this year.

Over the same period, China's textile enterprises above Designated Size realized sales value of 1 trillion and 942 billion 55 million yuan, an increase of 29.85% over the same period, including 1 trillion and 606 billion 682 million yuan of domestic sales value, an increase of 31.94% over the same period last year. And the ratio of domestic sales to total sales value is 82.73%, up 1.31 percentage points from the same period last year. It can be seen that the supporting role of domestic demand market for China's textile industry continues to consolidate.

Investment continues to decline

According to statistics, in 2011 1~5 months, the total amount of fixed assets investment in China's textile industry was more than 5 million yuan, amounting to 220 billion 162 million yuan, an increase of 36.22% over the same period last year, and the growth rate dropped by 36.93% percentage points over the 1~4 months (0.71 percentage points). Among them, the textile industry invested 118 billion 777 million yuan, an increase of 28.7% over the same period last year; the clothing industry invested 71 billion 894 million yuan, an increase of 42.5% over the previous year; the chemical fiber manufacturing industry invested 25 billion 91 million yuan, an increase of 66.43% over the same period last year; the textile special equipment manufacturing industry invested 4 billion 401 million yuan, an increase of 15.65% over the same period last year.

From a regional perspective, midwest Regional investment grew faster, accounting for further improvement, and the pace of adjustment of regional industrial structure continued to accelerate. 1~5 months, the total amount of fixed assets investment in the central and western textile industry over 5 million yuan or more was 80 billion 309 million yuan, an increase of 55.78% over the same period last year, accounting for 36.48% of the national textile investment ratio, representing a 4.58 percentage point increase over the same period last year.

Despite the fact that the total investment in the textile industry has maintained an overall growth, the number of new projects in the industry has been reduced due to the tight funding environment. According to statistics, in 2011 1~5, the number of newly started projects in the textile industry was 5929, a decrease of 2.52% over the same period last year.

Export growth rate down

According to customs statistics, in 2011 1~5 months, China's total exports of textiles and clothing totaled 91 billion 123 million US dollars, up 26.2% over the same period last year, and the growth rate was 6.68 percentage points faster than that of the same period last year.

Despite the general view, 1~5 months, China's textiles and clothing Exit It still shows a relatively fast growth trend, but it has slowed down 0.85 percentage points compared with the 1~4 month's export growth rate (27.05%), and the export price increase is an important factor supporting the rapid growth of export. According to the Statistics Center of China Textile Industry Association, the price index of textile and clothing exports increased by 21.49 points in 1~5 months compared with that of the previous month. The textile export price index increased by 24.91 points, and the clothing export price index increased by 18.91 points.

According to statistics, in 2011 1~5 months, the labor productivity of Industrial Enterprises above Designated Size (calculated according to gross industrial output value) was 482 thousand and 800 yuan / person, an increase of 21.62% over the same period last year, and the three fee ratio of industry was 5.82%, which was 0.16 percentage points lower than that of the same period last year. It reflects that the level of technology application and management of the industry are continuously improving.

Since this year, the profit ability of Chinese textile enterprises is higher than that in the same period of last year, but the profit growth has continued to decline in the same period of last year.

According to statistics, in 2011 1~5 months, the total profits of textile enterprises above Designated Size totaled 97 billion 716 million yuan, up 42.84% from the same period last year, and the growth rate dropped by 10.73 percentage points compared with that in 1~3 months (53.57%). The profit rate of the whole industry was 5.06%, which was 0.42 percentage points higher than that of the same period last year.

Textile enterprises are hard to show and smile.

Textile enterprises continue to weaken their ability to accept cotton prices, and cotton prices fluctuate rapidly, making it difficult for textile companies to smile.

In recent years, the high price of cotton is undoubtedly the key factor to increase the cost pressure of raw materials. Since the second half of 2009, cotton prices have been rising all over the country, making textile enterprises complain repeatedly. By March 2011, the average monthly price of domestic cotton grade 328 has risen to 30732 yuan / ton, equivalent to 2.4 times of the average market price of the 328 grade cotton in 2009. Since mid March of this year, domestic cotton prices have been declining. By the end of May this year, it had dropped by nearly 30%, but it still lives at a high level of 24500 yuan / ton.

Although enterprises have tried to digest the pressure of cost increase by adjusting product prices, improving production efficiency and improving management methods, price transmission is still unable to synchronously digest the pressure of rising costs. In addition, it will also be affected by factors such as tight financial environment, poor turnover, and the use of chemical fiber substitutes. Textile enterprises will continue to weaken their acceptance of cotton prices.

In addition, uncertainties in global demand increase, competition intensifies environmental tensions.

This year, there have been some unrest in the recovery process of the world economy, including the continuing upheaval in the Middle East and North Africa, resulting in a sharp rise in energy prices. In addition, when the Japanese earthquake broke out in March 11th and the crisis of nuclear leakage, and the European debt crisis came to a close, the problem of high fiscal deficits in the United States has become a drag on the progress of the world economic recovery.

In the context of world economic recovery and increasing uncertainty in the growth of international market demand, competition among countries in the international market has become fiercer. The problem of rising raw material prices and rising labor costs in China's textile industry has been particularly evident in recent years, making new developing countries directly challenge and compete with China's traditional textile and garment industry, especially the clothing industry.

Moreover, the funding environment is tightening, raising interest rates to raise financing difficulties.

For many years, the financing of the textile industry, especially the financing of SMEs, which is the overwhelming majority of the textile and garment industry, has been a difficult problem for the industry. Whether it is normal production and operation, or expansion of scale, upgrading and lack of funds, textile and garment enterprises are struggling.

This year, the financial environment of textile enterprises, especially small and medium-sized enterprises, is becoming more and more intense. In recent years, the central bank has raised the deposit reserve rate to 21.5% in sixth years. Since last year, this is the twelfth time that the central bank has raised the standard of deposit. Before January 12th last year, the deposit reserve ratio of large financial institutions was only 15.5%, so far it has risen 6 percentage points.

At present, the frequent tightening monetary policy has caused the industry to raise the financing cost too fast, and the interest expense has increased significantly. The increase in the reserve ratio and interest rate of bank deposits and loans makes the interest rate of private credit funds rising. This has increased financing costs for some textile enterprises which are seeking private financing because of poor financing channels. According to statistics, in 2011 1~5 months, the financial cost of China's textile industry increased by 36.64% over the same period, much higher than that of the main business revenue growth (31.14%) 5.59 percentage points.

Exports or continue to slow down

Overall, this year, political turmoil in some parts of the world and natural disasters in some areas have led to an increase in Global trade risk. Meanwhile, the European debt crisis and the high fiscal deficit in the United States have become the factors that drag the progress of the world economic recovery. It is expected that the global economy will continue to recover, but the pace will slow down, and the international market demand will slow down. At the same time, the external market pressure will be greater. Under the condition of tight international competition environment, the trend of slow downward export will continue.

In the domestic market, the domestic demand market will maintain a steady growth trend and become an important support for the development of the textile industry. However, due to inflation and other factors, domestic residents will have a certain degree of influence on the consumption capacity of textiles and clothing.

From the internal environment, the pressure of cost and the tight financial environment are the outstanding problems that our textile industry needs to face. Despite the rapid downward adjustment of cotton prices in recent years, there is still a pressure on the profitability of the industry to continue to improve. and capital The pressure of environmental stress will continue to increase in the second half of this year. It will also continue to raise the financing cost of the industry and curb investment demand.

Taking all these factors into consideration, I believe that the overall growth rate of China's textile industry will continue to slow down in the second half of 2011.