Guo Jin Commentary: Has The United States Completely Ruined?

At the end of the week, the Internet crazily spread the story of Bernanke, a Federal Reserve Chairman, who said: "the US economy is completely ruined. We are in big trouble. Unrestrained consumption, spiral interest rates and the global energy crisis will drive our economy into flush toilets.

Whether Bernanke is a truth or a wine can not be verified. Usually at such a critical time, when the truth is wearing shoes, rumours have run all over the street.

But the situation is indeed more worrying than the financial crisis of 2008: the US sovereign credit rating was pulled down by the standard Pool Co by the AAA altar; the third largest economy in the euro zone, Italy. bond The setback in the market has raised questions about the long-term viability of the eurozone; the valuation of bank stocks in the US and Europe has returned to the level of Lehman's bankruptcy.

Some analysts believe that the difference between 2008 and now is that it is not just a currency and banking crisis. The current problem is currency, banking and sovereign debt crisis.

The most regretful people now are members of the two parties in the United States. The last moment of compromise was not as tragic as they imagined. The biggest single day decline in global stock market hit the financial crisis, making the two party reconciliation somewhat funny. Members do not understand: are we reconciled? Why are you still endless?

The reason is very simple, because the damage has already been caused. This is a rare thing that politics does not lead the economy, or, more fundamentally, lies without deceived the truth. American politicians confidently believe that when the two parties are at the end of the dispute, the world will return to the right track, and they are familiar with this kind of routine, so they can play for a long time before the bottom line is broken.

It must be understood that $23 trillion in debt is not a day's work, "New York's" National debt The bell can be proved. But the most complicated political struggle ignores the simplest truth: they expose the danger that a world has been accustomed to openly to the people of the whole world in the most severe way of political struggle, just like the emperor's new clothes, and before World War is broken, the world economy always has the reason to hide its own stealing. The difference between fairy tales and reality is that the innocent child did not appear. The naked truth was just the Emperor himself, and of course the United States itself.

So, the fig leaf has been unveiled. We have to face the bleak truth, which is close to or below the PMI data that defines economic growth or reduces the divide between prosperity and decline. Layoffs The plan, or the imminent municipal debt default tide, has gradually discredited the brilliant image of the United States. It is no exaggeration to say that from the moment Obama signed the US debt agreement, the United States has turned into a downhill path of strong decline.

Some economists believe that the downgrade of S & P is a symbolic starting point. Some people believe that the beginning of the breakup of the Bretton Woods monetary system, the subprime crisis in 2008 and the downgrade of the sovereign credit rating are the three steps of the US's long-term recession. This conclusion also confirms the three key words of the current crisis: money, banking and sovereign debt.

What is even more frightening is that if the United States is the source of the belief in the world economy, all the proverbs constructed for it will lose the power of restraint. That is to say, the world economy built on the general equivalent of the dollar has to start the shift of faith painfully. This is also a paradigm shift that theorists have emphasized constantly.

The world economy is looking for an obvious "wolf". Europe is still sinking, Britain has long been ambitious, Japan is still in the abyss of nuclear crisis, emerging countries are rising, BRICs are threatening, but at least the advantages are not yet determined and hidden dangers are rising again. A IMF presidents battle for position can see that the emerging countries are powerless and capable of inferiority in mastering world resources. To fill the vacuum of power, the emerging countries have neither mental preparation nor talent pool. Therefore, in the foreseeable future, what awaits us will be a long drawn out battle. The world is also waiting for the emergence of a new order after being badly bruised.