Sun Lijian: The Ten Possible Paths Of "Hot Money" Leaving China

Currently entering the Chinese market "

Since it is "hot money", it can not be taken lightly by its covert "action".

Otherwise, macroeconomic stability will be greatly impacted unexpectedly.

Then, when the "hot money" of "perching" in China is "waiting" until when will a large amount of RMB be thrown out and sprint the final goal of "bag for safety"?

First of all, through the covert pricing mechanism of intra firm trade, that is, overestimating the price of industrial intermediate production inputs, or by referring to the highest annual price, allowing their subsidiaries to pay, thus pferring the "hot money" gained in the Chinese market.

Secondly, using the "hot money" that is profitable in the capital market, it will directly purchase a large number of Chinese products in a period of time, and cash the goods through foreign sales channels, so as to complete the overseas escape plan of domestic foreign capital in disguise.

Third, through the infiltration of the controlling rights of Chinese enterprises, in the name of legality, it will provide a platform for Chinese enterprises to invest overseas, and open up the access for Chinese capital to enter the world stage, thus making it easier to bring "hot money" out of China.

In recent years, foreign capital has set up private equity funds in China, and actively mergers and acquisitions of domestic enterprises to support their listing in the sea, so that overseas dollar funds can be legally "parallel exchange" with the "hot money" of domestic Renminbi in such an organizational system.

It is also a way to escape from China's regulatory authorities by establishing an open environment in the Chinese market.

Fourth, many agents import large quantities of overseas luxury goods and use them without a unified standard pricing character to raise prices. This can also make the "hot money" quietly leave the field.

Fifth, deliberately create a commercial dispute between "mother" company and "son" company, and then, by way of compensation, bring the funds illegally obtained in China to the hands of foreign parent companies.

Sixth, some agents, in the name of providing residents' overseas travel, use the open policy of "relocating people to the people" and the amount of residents' remittance to the extreme. If the scale of pformation is formed, the scale of the withdrawal of "hot money" can not be ignored.

Seventh, if macroeconomic regulation and control brings the decline of bank revenue, and even affect the income level of employees, some regulatory lax windows will also provide convenience for foreign investors who are not subject to macroeconomic regulation and control, so as to get commission for their services and compensate for the impact of macro-control on their incomes.

The result is to open the back door of foreign capital escape.

Eighth, the use of China's large-scale foreign affairs activities, through legitimate organizations (travel agencies, etc.), to provide tourists with the renminbi needed for consumption in China, so as to "successfully" bring their illegal profits profits out of China.

Ninth, when the domestic macro economy is weak, the residents take the lead in leaving the market with their legal exchange terms or informed conditions, causing panic in the market. At this time, "hot money" also "fish in troubled waters" and follow suit.

Of course, during the financial crisis in Southeast Asia, there was also a lot of "hot money" that had not left the field. They were "deeply" set up by the weak capital market and thus suffered huge losses caused by "ignorance".

Tenth, the foreign currency exchange under capital account, such as foreign exchange margin trading, has been publicly banned in China. However, "hot money" will use some underground trading windows to purchase foreign exchange in Renminbi (the amount will also use multiple legal account operations), pfer to foreign account pactions, and then directly enter foreign accounts, and this "operation" can also escape from its regulated foreign exchange market.

It is undeniable that there may be other kinds of legal "cloak" channels. Therefore, the key to "hot money" is to seize the opportunity of "leaving the field" and concentrate on the "abnormal behavior" of capital mobility, which is often accompanied by the "sudden increase" of China's trade surplus or deficit.

In addition, we should pay close attention to some foreign economic indicators, such as the contents of the balance of payments, which may not be able to see the shadow of "hot money" on the surface, but behind them may highlight the "undercurrent" of the massive departure of "hot money".